Ariel Rusila's Conflicts [Ex-BalkanPerspective]

March 3, 2026 The Israeli and US airstrikes on Iran – which I have referred to in my previous articles as “Operations Rising Lion + Midnight Hammer II 2026” – began on the morning of February 28, 2026, as part of a coordinated operation that Israel called Operation Lion’s Roar and the US Operation Epic Fury. As I see it, the momentum of the Iranian uprising in the coming days will be: will it succeed in breaking the oppressive regime maintained by the theocratic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or will there only be a change of power with the oppressive regime continuing in a weakened form after the current air operation ends. The following is my initial assessment of the progress of the operation. The video can be viewed by clicking on the following link:  Attack on Tehran’s administrative district . Credit: IDF Also targeting political leadership The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has reported that it has struck around 500 targets in Iran (air defense, ballistic missile armaments, ...

February 15, 2026 Iran is under constant internal and external pressure, marked by widespread protests, economic damage from sanctions, and repression. Despite this pressure, the regime has remained intact. The Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij have maintained their loyalty and operational effectiveness, and there are no signs of significant defections in the armed forces (Artesh). The situation may become slightly more favorable for the uprising if Israel and the United States carry out a more extensive attack on the structures of Iran’s theocratic repressive regime than last year’s 12-Day War. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the United States to discuss regional issues in the Middle East with US President Donald Trump and his aides, particularly the coordination of a possible joint attack on Iran. President Trump also stated after the talks,  “I’m going to talk to the Iranians as long as I want. If we don’t make a deal with them, we’ll go to phase two. ...

December 7, 2025 Israel’s victorious seven-front war is now in a lull in December 2025. As for Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, the Middle East is in a state of hiatus, a new war on these fronts could escalate at any time in the next couple of months. Iran’s proxy armies in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and the arming Palestinian territories are gathering their forces but, in my opinion, are not capable of a significant, larger-scale attack on Israel. On the first civil front – the information war – Israel is still losing. Hamas has succeeded in its marketing campaign, among other things by spreading massive disinformation, in gaining support for its cause in the West, and since its massive terrorist attack on 7/10/2023, anti-Semitic attacks have multiplied worldwide and especially in the West. The situation may now be improving as the disinformation transmitted by Hamas and even uncritically shared by Western countries, as well as the misinformation propagated by the UN and other organizations about star...

August 17, 2025 The Israeli military intelligence agency Aman and the foreign intelligence agency Mossad conducted extensive, multi-year intelligence gathering and covert operations inside Iran, developing capabilities and conducting covert operations that could have led to the success of Operation Rising Lion. The operation used commando teams, precision weapons and explosive drones on Iranian soil while eliminating nuclear scientists and security officials. Now, more details about the operation have emerged than ever before, as 10 current and former Israeli intelligence officials described commando raids and undisclosed targets in interviews with  ProPublica  describing the country’s decades-long secret operation to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb. They requested anonymity in order to speak freely. Commando teams in Iran The Mossad recruited and trained two commando units. Each had 14 teams of four to six members. Some of them were already in Iran, having received ...

July 14, 2025 Israel’s small war cabinet met on Sunday evening [13/07/2025] with the aim of preventing the collapse of the Doha hostage and ceasefire talks. The key issue remains Hamas’s demand for Israel to withdraw from southern Gaza, the extent of the withdrawal and, in particular, whether the IDF can maintain the so-called Morag Corridor that bisects Gaza. After Israel has already accepted US Special Envoy Witkoff’s mediation proposal on several occasions, the talks remain stalled due to Hamas’ demands. The other main topic of the meeting was Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz’s initiative to build a so-called “humanitarian city” in Rafah, southern Gaza. Katz had asked the Israeli military (IDF) to prepare a plan for the war cabinet meeting based on the initiative. A tent camp housing displaced Palestinians in Rafah, southern Gaza, last year.  Credit:Hatem Ali/Associated Press A tent camp housing displaced Palestinians in Rafah, southern Gaza, last year. Credit:Hatem Ali/Asso...