Iran’s Momentum

March 3, 2026

The Israeli and US airstrikes on Iran – which I have referred to in my previous articles as “Operations Rising Lion + Midnight Hammer II 2026” – began on the morning of February 28, 2026, as part of a coordinated operation that Israel called Operation Lion’s Roar and the US Operation Epic Fury.

As I see it, the momentum of the Iranian uprising in the coming days will be: will it succeed in breaking the oppressive regime maintained by the theocratic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or will there only be a change of power with the oppressive regime continuing in a weakened form after the current air operation ends.

The following is my initial assessment of the progress of the operation.

The video can be viewed by clicking on the following link: Attack on Tehran’s administrative district. Credit: IDF

Also targeting political leadership

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has reported that it has struck around 500 targets in Iran (air defense, ballistic missile armaments, command centers, nuclear-related targets). Around 200 Israeli aircraft participated in the strikes. The United States, in turn, launched Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iranian targets as part of the same campaign. According to unofficial estimates, over 800 strikes were carried out in the first ~12 hours, based on combined separate sources.

This is the largest airstrike in the history of the Israeli Air Force (IAF). IAF Commander Major General Tomer Bar calls the strike (codenamed Genesis) the opening operation of Operation Roaring Lion, also describing it as a strong start. The operation was now exceptionally carried out mainly during the day due to the massive equipment in the air. No losses have been reported, so apparently the remnants of Iranian air defenses were completely destroyed.

According to the United States, its strikes have sunk at least nine Iranian warships – including a Jamaran-class corvette – during the latest operation. According to President Trump, the United States will continue the operation and ultimately aim to destroy or sink the entire Iranian navy.

In addition to the IRGC command centers (the HQ was also destroyed) and other military targets, the operation has at this point targeted the country’s political elite and government buildings more widely than I expected. Of particular note is the elimination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which exceptionally also took place during the day as soon as intelligence determined his real-time whereabouts. Other strikes have eliminated a significant part of the defense forces and the IRGC’s top leadership.

Credit: IDF, public domain

The Israeli-American strikes eliminated more than 40 Iranian top-level commanders and officials during the initial strike. The following is a list of the most prominent high-ranking Iranian government and military leaders who have been reported dead:

Ali Khamenei: Iran’s supreme leader and long-serving supreme leader.
Ali Shamkhani: Former secretary of the National Security Council and a senior security official.
Mohammad Pakpour: Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) (head of the ground forces).
Aziz Nasirzadeh: Iranian Minister of Defense.
Saleh Asadi: IRGC Head of Intelligence Directorate (Khatam-al-Anbia Central Directorate).
Hossein Jabal Amelian: Chairman of the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) and senior military research director.
Reza Mozaffari Nia: Former SPND director and key figure in weapons development programs.
Abdolrahim Mousavi: Chief of General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces.
Majid Mousavi: IRGC Aerospace Force commander.
Gholamreza Rezaian: Commander of the Iranian Police Intelligence Organization (SAFA).
Mohammad Baseri: Senior intelligence official (Iranian Foreign Ministry spy chief).

Of the individual attacks, the missile strike that destroyed the Minab girls’ school was particularly devastating, killing mostly schoolchildren, from a few dozen to 148. The school in question is 600 meters from a Revolutionary Guard base, such a large deviation is rare during precision missiles. It is unclear whether the destruction was caused by an Israeli/US strike or whether it was the result of Iran’s own malfunctioning/deflected missile.

Iranian counterattacks

According to Israeli sources, just under a hundred Israelis have been wounded in Iranian counterattacks, especially with ballistic missiles.

What surprised me in the early stages of this operation was the number of ballistic, cruise and anti-ship missiles and drones launched by Iran, even though the main targets of the USA and Israel were precisely the missile locations and launch pads.

In the table below, I have compiled the missiles launched by Iran at Israel and elsewhere in the Middle East over a two-day period. In the absence of official data, the figures are rough estimates.

If the figures are correct in their magnitude, it can be estimated that Iran will still be able to launch a similar number in the coming days before Iran’s missile and anti-ship arsenal is practically exhausted.

The Momentum of the Uprising

President Trump has stated that after the current attack, the overthrow of the theocratic regime is in the hands of the Iranian people themselves and that the US and no one else is sending ground troops to carry out the regime change.

Before the attack, there were anti-regime protests in Iran involving millions of people, which spread across the country to more than 400 cities and 31 provinces. The regime’s repressive measures and internet shutdowns made and continue to make the uprising difficult. Since the attack, the most visible form of protests in Iran – supported by state media – have been rallies in defense of the regime and against foreign attacks, which have attracted tens of thousands of citizens, even more than the citizens who celebrated the death of Ali Khamenei. The situation may naturally change if the regime’s opponents manage to mobilize better in the context of the war or if the security forces end their heavy fire support.

On the second day of the attack, President Trump said he was ready to negotiate with the post-Khamenei regime in Iran. This could be a serious setback for the uprising. It is quite possible that the most pragmatic members of the clerical regime, the Revolutionary Guard, and the regime’s technocrats would accept Trump’s terms for a nuclear-free Iran and perhaps even get sanctions lifted. It would be pointless to dream about democracy and broader human rights, although as a bonus, the use of the headscarf might not be so strictly monitored anymore – the structures of the theocratic system would remain almost unchanged. It is also possible that the negotiations will not lead anywhere, and it will be seen whether Trump will implement a phase 2 operation to destroy the IRGC and the current regime. I personally do not trust the implementation of phase 2 anymore because Trump is under domestic pressure to declare a major victory as soon as possible.

Israel and the United States will probably continue airstrikes for a few more days, after which the Iranian missile threat will probably be removed, at least for the time being. I think that without weapons, the uprising will not happen and weapons will be available if the army opens its arsenal and/or there are splits in the security apparatus as the elite fights to fill the power vacuum created by Khamenei’s departure. So the momentum is there, the coming week will show which way the situation will turn.

Sources include IDF and SoMe

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The article first appeared in the online publication Ariel-Israelista suomeksi