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Government options in Israel

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  November 3, 2026 “In Israel, elections don’t end on election night; that’s when they begin.” There is an old saying in Israel: “In Israel, elections don’t end on election night; that’s when they begin.” This holds true once again, as neither bloc—neither the one led by Benjamin Netanyahu nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot—secured a simple majority in the Knesset in the elections held on October 27, 2026. In a 120-seat parliament, a majority requires 61 representatives; Netanyahu garnered 53, Eisenkot 48, and the successful Arab parties won 19. The post-election maneuvering has thus begun, with three primary scenarios: 1. Eisenkot’s bloc, supplemented by or supported by the Arab parties. 2. A national unity government consisting of the Zionist center and the right wing. 3. New elections within six months, should no solution be found in the coming months. Forming a government based on either of these main options is no easy task; it would require the parties involved...
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Advance warnings 7 October 2023

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  September 16, 2026 In September 2026, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz published an investigative article based on an upcoming book by journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval. According to the report, a week and a half before the October 7, 2023, attack by the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to warn him of a “massive” attack planned by Yahya Sinwar; the conversation between the ruler of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly lasted 45 minutes. The Prime Minister’s Office has dismissed the entire story as completely false. The book’s claims are viewed—particularly within the governing coalition—as politically motivated, given that only about a month and a half remains until the elections. In my view, the claim regarding the call is supported by other early warning signs; alongside the MbZ claim, I will discuss the warning call made to Netanyahu’s office by the head of Egypt...
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15-point peace plan for Iran

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March 29, 2026 Credit: Dee Knight,  public domain The war between Iran and Israel entered a new phase on February 28, 2026, when joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran killed Iran’s then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and high-ranking military commanders and destroyed, among other things, the Iranian navy, Revolutionary Guard command centers and missile bases. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes on 11 countries – in addition to the Middle East, also on Turkey, Cyprus and even the British-controlled island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, about 4,000 km from Iran. Now at the end of March, US President Donald Trump has presented, through Pakistan, a 15-point peace plan, which Iran has rejected and presented the United States with a counter-proposal. Israel is critical of the plan, negotiations are expected to continue at least until April 6, 2026, after which attacks and possibly even a US ground operation to seize, for example, Kharg Island or another target in the Strait of Ho...
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Israel is waging war on two fronts against Iran

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March 23, 2026 The situation in the Middle East escalated after last summer’s 12-day war, when Israel and the United States repelled Iran’s missile threat with extensive air strikes targeting the country’s power structure. Iran, in turn, made military history by attacking 11 countries in a single day with ballistic missiles and drones. Iran’s proxy army in Lebanon, Hezbollah, attacked Israel significantly more forcefully than before, thus rendering the previous ceasefire meaningless. According to the terms of last year’s ceasefire, Hezbollah should have completely withdrawn from the area south of the Litani River; instead of disarming, which was the task of the Lebanese army, Hezbollah had strengthened its positions and increased its missile and drone arsenal with Iranian support. Israel is now carrying out the task agreed upon for the Lebanese army and is clearing the area with a limited ground operation and weakening Hezbollah with air strikes also north of the Litani River. Credit: ...
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Filling Iran’s Power Vacuum

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March 6, 2026 The departure of Iran’s Supreme Leader – Ali Khamenei – has left a power vacuum in the country, a filling process to which the ongoing war and uprising bring their own twists. Formally, the new Supreme Leader is chosen by the Assembly of Experts (an 88-member expert body). The process is not a direct popular election, but an internal religious-political decision. As an interim solution, especially now during wartime, a leadership council bears the responsibility for his duties instead of a single Supreme Leader. Credit:  https://www.the-star.co.ke/ , public domain I personally see three different, more or less likely scenarios for Iran’s leadership during or immediately after the war: A change of the power structure through an uprising towards parliamentarism, The theocratic power structure remains, with continuity through a new leader, The theocratic power structure transforms in a more technocratic, reformist direction, allowing superficial reforms and improvements ...
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