Ariel Rusila's Conflicts [Ex-BalkanPerspective]

March 29, 2026 Credit: Dee Knight,  public domain The war between Iran and Israel entered a new phase on February 28, 2026, when joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran killed Iran’s then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and high-ranking military commanders and destroyed, among other things, the Iranian navy, Revolutionary Guard command centers and missile bases. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes on 11 countries – in addition to the Middle East, also on Turkey, Cyprus and even the British-controlled island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, about 4,000 km from Iran. Now at the end of March, US President Donald Trump has presented, through Pakistan, a 15-point peace plan, which Iran has rejected and presented the United States with a counter-proposal. Israel is critical of the plan, negotiations are expected to continue at least until April 6, 2026, after which attacks and possibly even a US ground operation to seize, for example, Kharg Island or another target in the Strait of Ho...

March 23, 2026 The situation in the Middle East escalated after last summer’s 12-day war, when Israel and the United States repelled Iran’s missile threat with extensive air strikes targeting the country’s power structure. Iran, in turn, made military history by attacking 11 countries in a single day with ballistic missiles and drones. Iran’s proxy army in Lebanon, Hezbollah, attacked Israel significantly more forcefully than before, thus rendering the previous ceasefire meaningless. According to the terms of last year’s ceasefire, Hezbollah should have completely withdrawn from the area south of the Litani River; instead of disarming, which was the task of the Lebanese army, Hezbollah had strengthened its positions and increased its missile and drone arsenal with Iranian support. Israel is now carrying out the task agreed upon for the Lebanese army and is clearing the area with a limited ground operation and weakening Hezbollah with air strikes also north of the Litani River. Credit: ...

March 6, 2026 The departure of Iran’s Supreme Leader – Ali Khamenei – has left a power vacuum in the country, a filling process to which the ongoing war and uprising bring their own twists. Formally, the new Supreme Leader is chosen by the Assembly of Experts (an 88-member expert body). The process is not a direct popular election, but an internal religious-political decision. As an interim solution, especially now during wartime, a leadership council bears the responsibility for his duties instead of a single Supreme Leader. Credit:  https://www.the-star.co.ke/ , public domain I personally see three different, more or less likely scenarios for Iran’s leadership during or immediately after the war: A change of the power structure through an uprising towards parliamentarism, The theocratic power structure remains, with continuity through a new leader, The theocratic power structure transforms in a more technocratic, reformist direction, allowing superficial reforms and improvements ...