Ariel Rusila's Conflicts [Ex-BalkanPerspective]

March 23, 2026 The situation in the Middle East escalated after last summer’s 12-day war, when Israel and the United States repelled Iran’s missile threat with extensive air strikes targeting the country’s power structure. Iran, in turn, made military history by attacking 11 countries in a single day with ballistic missiles and drones. Iran’s proxy army in Lebanon, Hezbollah, attacked Israel significantly more forcefully than before, thus rendering the previous ceasefire meaningless. According to the terms of last year’s ceasefire, Hezbollah should have completely withdrawn from the area south of the Litani River; instead of disarming, which was the task of the Lebanese army, Hezbollah had strengthened its positions and increased its missile and drone arsenal with Iranian support. Israel is now carrying out the task agreed upon for the Lebanese army and is clearing the area with a limited ground operation and weakening Hezbollah with air strikes also north of the Litani River. Credit: ...

March 6, 2026 The departure of Iran’s Supreme Leader – Ali Khamenei – has left a power vacuum in the country, a filling process to which the ongoing war and uprising bring their own twists. Formally, the new Supreme Leader is chosen by the Assembly of Experts (an 88-member expert body). The process is not a direct popular election, but an internal religious-political decision. As an interim solution, especially now during wartime, a leadership council bears the responsibility for his duties instead of a single Supreme Leader. Credit:  https://www.the-star.co.ke/ , public domain I personally see three different, more or less likely scenarios for Iran’s leadership during or immediately after the war: A change of the power structure through an uprising towards parliamentarism, The theocratic power structure remains, with continuity through a new leader, The theocratic power structure transforms in a more technocratic, reformist direction, allowing superficial reforms and improvements ...

March 3, 2026 The Israeli and US airstrikes on Iran – which I have referred to in my previous articles as “Operations Rising Lion + Midnight Hammer II 2026” – began on the morning of February 28, 2026, as part of a coordinated operation that Israel called Operation Lion’s Roar and the US Operation Epic Fury. As I see it, the momentum of the Iranian uprising in the coming days will be: will it succeed in breaking the oppressive regime maintained by the theocratic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or will there only be a change of power with the oppressive regime continuing in a weakened form after the current air operation ends. The following is my initial assessment of the progress of the operation. The video can be viewed by clicking on the following link:  Attack on Tehran’s administrative district . Credit: IDF Also targeting political leadership The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has reported that it has struck around 500 targets in Iran (air defense, ballistic missile armaments, ...

February 15, 2026 Iran is under constant internal and external pressure, marked by widespread protests, economic damage from sanctions, and repression. Despite this pressure, the regime has remained intact. The Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij have maintained their loyalty and operational effectiveness, and there are no signs of significant defections in the armed forces (Artesh). The situation may become slightly more favorable for the uprising if Israel and the United States carry out a more extensive attack on the structures of Iran’s theocratic repressive regime than last year’s 12-Day War. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the United States to discuss regional issues in the Middle East with US President Donald Trump and his aides, particularly the coordination of a possible joint attack on Iran. President Trump also stated after the talks,  “I’m going to talk to the Iranians as long as I want. If we don’t make a deal with them, we’ll go to phase two. ...