Ariel Rusila's Conflicts [Ex-BalkanPerspective]

Based on current information, I assess – or speculate – on the following scenario as the most likely for developments in Syria: In a short time frame of perhaps a few months, the vast majority of Syrians will perceive the fall of al-Assad as positive, and this will be directed at its main implementer, the HTS movement. The movement’s leader, Mohammed al-Golani, has also presented a relatively modern and permissive image of himself, which is supported by his years of activity in Idlib. The designation of HTS as a terrorist organization may change as its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has made great efforts over the past decade to distance himself from al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. The Taliban and HTS insurgents share some ideological similarities with Islamist movements, but their connections are limited. The two groups operate in separate geopolitical contexts: the Taliban focuses on Afghanistan, while HTS is a Syrian insurgent. HTS focuses on local, limited operations, in cont...

“ We must support the Kurds’ aspirations for independence; they deserve it” (PM Benyamin Netanyahu) An independent Kurdish state, an idea that the countries where the Kurds live – Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran – strongly oppose, has one strong ally namely Israel . It might be su rprising that Israel has long promoted cordial relations with the Kurds, particularly the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq (KRG). From Kurdish side there is believe that Israel can be their best lobby in the West for the project of a Kurdish state.   On 25 th September 2017, a referendum will be held on the future of the autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq - whether remain within the Iraqi state or become an independent state. This referendum will be the Kurds’ first step towards the realization over century-long dream of an independent Kurdistan.   The Kurds have suffered persecution and oppression in the countries where they reside: Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey. The Kurds now consti...

"democracies make elections, elections don’t make democracies” The counting of Millions of votes cast in Iraqis elections is going on to choose the right ones from more than 6,000 candidates from 86 political groups to gain seats in the 325-member assembly. Some violence occurred - 38 citizens were killed and around 100 were wounded in result of bombings. The country's electoral commission called it a "glorious day" and a victory for Iraq. While election hype and afterwards PM selection and government coalitions are taking headlines some other aspects before, during and after elections may have more effect for the future of Iraq. Comments from West have praised democratic development and even the UN Security Council Monday hailed parliamentary elections in Iraq as an "important step" toward strengthening the country's national unity. From my point of view democracy played minor role in elections and the outcome probably will be splitting ethnic/reli...