Ari Rusila's BalkanBlog

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Filling Iran’s Power Vacuum

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March 6, 2026 The departure of Iran’s Supreme Leader – Ali Khamenei – has left a power vacuum in the country, a filling process to which the ongoing war and uprising bring their own twists. Formally, the new Supreme Leader is chosen by the Assembly of Experts (an 88-member expert body). The process is not a direct popular election, but an internal religious-political decision. As an interim solution, especially now during wartime, a leadership council bears the responsibility for his duties instead of a single Supreme Leader. Credit:  https://www.the-star.co.ke/ , public domain I personally see three different, more or less likely scenarios for Iran’s leadership during or immediately after the war: A change of the power structure through an uprising towards parliamentarism, The theocratic power structure remains, with continuity through a new leader, The theocratic power structure transforms in a more technocratic, reformist direction, allowing superficial reforms and improvements ...
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Some progress with Moldova/Transdnistria dispute on 2008

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After years of deadlock year 2008 showed some promising signs of progress with dispute between Moldova and Transdnistria/Pridnestrovie – its separatist region or independent state depending of viewpoint. After a 7-year long pause the leaders of Moldova and Transdnistria met on April 2008, conflict in Georgia launched new process while Russia took a stronger role as mediator. The culmination of year was meeting between President Voronin/Moldova and President Smirnov/Transdnistria on Xmas week. Short history In 1992 Moldova and Transdnistria fought a brief, bitter war which the separatists won, with the assistance of a contingent of locally-based Russian troops left over from the Soviet Red Army. Cease fire left Russian troops in place as peacekeepers and Transdnistria has since then acted de facto as independent - although not recognized – state. Conflict was frozen nearly ten years, then started first serious try to find sustainable solution. In the Spring 2003 Dimitry Koza...
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15-point peace plan for Iran

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March 29, 2026 Credit: Dee Knight,  public domain The war between Iran and Israel entered a new phase on February 28, 2026, when joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran killed Iran’s then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and high-ranking military commanders and destroyed, among other things, the Iranian navy, Revolutionary Guard command centers and missile bases. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes on 11 countries – in addition to the Middle East, also on Turkey, Cyprus and even the British-controlled island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, about 4,000 km from Iran. Now at the end of March, US President Donald Trump has presented, through Pakistan, a 15-point peace plan, which Iran has rejected and presented the United States with a counter-proposal. Israel is critical of the plan, negotiations are expected to continue at least until April 6, 2026, after which attacks and possibly even a US ground operation to seize, for example, Kharg Island or another target in the Strait of Ho...
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