Ariel Rusila's Conflicts [Ex-BalkanPerspective]

June 18, 2025 Iran has responded with massive missile and drone strikes to Israel’s preemptive airstrike on nuclear facilities and military targets on Friday, June 13, 2025, supported by smaller-scale operations inside Iran by the Mossad. Israel’s initial strike caused severe damage to the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities and crippled numerous defense systems and ballistic missile production facilities. Israel’s stated goals are, first, to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program and, second, to stop the country’s missile program. An unofficial indirect goal, I assume, is to change Iran’s theocratic regime. There are no signs yet of regime change in Iran, although on the other hand, there have been demonstrations in Iran and abroad supporting Israel’s strikes. Inside Iran, the current government is based on the religious population of the countryside and the Revolutionary Guard. The civilized, secular, young and unarmed population of the cities is too powerless to make a change; the...

March 16, 2025 Student-led protests in Serbia reached their peak this weekend [March 15-16, 2025] when more than 100,000 anti-government protesters gathered in Belgrade to demand the resignation of President Vucic. At the same time also some students and former paramilitary fighters loyal to President Vucic have been camping outside the presidency building in Belgrade from March 13, 2025 fueling fears of violent incidents during antigovernment rally this weekend. This could be a provocation by the government to order police to quell the growing anti-government movement. A sticker with a message reading, “15.03. See you in Belgrade,” is seen on a tractor parked near the Serbian presidency building and the National Assembly in Belgrade.  Credit:  [Andrej Isakovic/AFP] The protests were sparked by the collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad on November 1, killing 15 people (Background on this in my article -in Finnish-  Serbiassa asemakatos romahti – ...

February 28, 2025 The first phase of the three-phase hostage and ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas ends on Saturday, March 1, 2025. Under the agreement, 602 terrorist prisoners will then be released in exchange for the bodies of four slain Israeli hostages. Of the prisoners to be released, 50 are serving life sentences, many of whom were responsible for orchestrating the horrific suicide bombings of the mid-1990s. Saturday’s exchange of hostages for terrorists marks the end of the first phase of the agreement. There are no signs from either side of the warring parties or the various mediators that Israel and Hamas are close to reaching an agreement on implementing the second phase of the hostage and ceasefire agreement. Saturday, March 1, 2025~~? US Ambassador Steve Witkoff has been trying to broker an extension of the first phase of the ceasefire. Such an extension would specifically include the release of hostages deemed to be in need of immediate medical attention. The re...

February 9, 2025 US President Donald Trump’s vision for Gaza has been met with a largely negative reception around the world. The initiative has been described as outrageous, illegal, ethnic cleansing, a violation of international order, forced displacement, impossible to implement, dramatic, shocking, etc. On the other hand, it has been described as “out of the box” thinking, a panacea, a masterstroke, radical, unconventional, etc. From my perspective, Trump’s vision is a game changer, the cards have now been redistributed, disregarding the traditional rules, resulting in a pragmatic plan that promises a better future and is feasible due to the presenter. Trump’s vision President Trump presented his Gaza vision a little over two weeks ago and has since returned to it on two occasions, also presenting clarifications. The main features of the Trump plan’s control elements: After the end of the Gaza war, Israel will hand over the Gaza Strip to US control in terms of Gaza and Hamas; US so...

January 30, 2025 “Almost everything is demolished and people are dying there…So I’d rather get involved with some of the Arab nations and build housing at a different location where maybe they can live in peace for a change.”  (Donald Trump) US President Donald Trump said on Saturday [January 25, 2025] that he had spoken with Jordan’s King Abdullah II about relocating Palestinian refugees to Jordan and Egypt. He also said he planned to speak to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi about the issue. Trump described Gaza as a “demolition site,” adding “I would rather get involved with some of the Arab nations and build housing at a different location where maybe they can live in peace for a change.” He added that the change “could be temporary” or “could be long-term.” President Trump’s idea is reminiscent of the three-state (restoration) model I have previously proposed, in which Gaza, formerly under Egyptian control, would be returned to direct Egyptian control in an expanded for...