Israel is waging war on two fronts against Iran

March 23, 2026

The situation in the Middle East escalated after last summer’s 12-day war, when Israel and the United States repelled Iran’s missile threat with extensive air strikes targeting the country’s power structure. Iran, in turn, made military history by attacking 11 countries in a single day with ballistic missiles and drones.

Iran’s proxy army in Lebanon, Hezbollah, attacked Israel significantly more forcefully than before, thus rendering the previous ceasefire meaningless. According to the terms of last year’s ceasefire, Hezbollah should have completely withdrawn from the area south of the Litani River; instead of disarming, which was the task of the Lebanese army, Hezbollah had strengthened its positions and increased its missile and drone arsenal with Iranian support. Israel is now carrying out the task agreed upon for the Lebanese army and is clearing the area with a limited ground operation and weakening Hezbollah with air strikes also north of the Litani River.

Credit: Alma, public domain

Iranian Front

The Israeli Air Force has so far destroyed 100 Iranian anti-aircraft batteries and 120 radars, giving it absolute air supremacy. Currently, about 80% of Iran’s air defenses have been destroyed and the Israeli Air Force has suffered no losses.

Israel and especially the United States have increasingly hammered the command centers of the regime and the Revolutionary Guard in Iran with larger bunker busters, because, like missile factories, the most important command centers are located deep in the country. The news flash below depicts one such command center:

Iran continues to attack Israel’s home front as well. Iran’s cluster munitions-equipped missiles fired at Israeli population centers are illegal under international law, meaning that Iran has already committed nearly two hundred war crimes in this regard alone. In the West Bank, a cluster bomb hit a beauty salon in a village outside Hebron, killing four Palestinian women and wounding at least a dozen. In Adanim, just northeast of Tel Aviv, a cluster bomb from an Iranian missile killed a Thai farmworker.

Israel struck [March 18, 2026] the giant South Pars gas field, which Iran uses to meet its domestic needs, including military operations. Iran responded by striking Qatari facilities at the same gas field, which are used primarily to meet global market needs. South Pars, the world’s largest gas field, straddles the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Qatar and Iran in the Persian Gulf. The gas produced on the Iranian side serves almost exclusively Iran’s domestic market. Its removal would have little direct impact on global markets, but would dramatically increase domestic political pressure on the Islamist regime.

Israel has continued to successfully eliminate Iranian political and military leaders. The most important targets in recent days were Ali Larijani, who effectively led the Iranian regime, and Gholamreza Soleimani, the commander of the Basij militia, both of whom also excel in violently suppressing the uprising.

Credit: IDF, public domain

Credit: IDF, public domain

The ongoing war has reduced Iran’s strategic strike capability – especially in terms of ballistic missiles and the navy – by more than 90% of its pre-war level, according to estimates.

• Ballistic missiles: previously 2,500–3,000 (usable), over 500 launched, hundreds destroyed on the ground, launch rate down 90–92% from the beginning of the war.
• Missile launchers (TEL): previously about 410–500, of which 100–180 are now operational.
• Drones (Shahed etc.): previously about 2,000–5,000 (various estimates), over 2,000 used in the war, launch rate down 83–95%.
• Naval ships (total): previously about 250–300 (IRIN + IRGCN), over 60 ships destroyed/damaged, large surface ships (frigates, corvettes) have been destroyed; ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz drastically reduced

Israel and the United States have approved operational plans for Iran for the next three weeks. The plan is to destroy all elements and capabilities of the Iranian regime. A fleet carrying US Marines is arriving in the area of ​​operation. This will allow for a limited land operation. In my view, such an operation could be the takeover of part of the Iranian coastline or, for example, the capture of Kharg Island to secure commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Lebanese Front

The IDF’s fighting in Lebanon continues, mostly by air and also with small ground operations. Airstrikes destroyed two Litani River crossings in addition to two bridges previously destroyed. Hezbollah used the crossings to transport weapons and fighters south to the Israeli border. The commander of the “Imam Hussein Division,” part of Iran’s Quds Force in Lebanon, was eliminated in an IDF airstrike in Beirut.

Credit: IDF, public domain

In Lebanon, Hezbollah, like Hamas, uses human shield tactics to protect its personnel and weapons. Below are two examples from south of the Litani River, the area from which Hezbollah was to be withdrawn under the ceasefire agreement. The first video shows Hezbollah firing missiles next to a UNIFIL base, and the second shows a typical example of an arms cache located in a civilian settlement. More up-to-date examples can be found on the Alma Research and Education Center website.

In addition to the above, Alma’s interactive map contains dozens of other videos or descriptions of how Hezbollah uses human shield tactics between the Litani River and the Israeli border.

Based on public intelligence estimates, Hezbollah’s military resources now compared to the situation on March 1, 2026 are roughly as follows:

• March 1, 2026 approximately 25,000 missiles and rockets, estimated several thousand remaining, local production ongoing
• Shahed-101 drones, local production disrupted, but continuing
• For missiles and drones, previously the Syrian route was open but cut off in December 2024
• Iranian support of 50 million USD/month, support continues, but supply routes have become more difficult
• Fighters around 95,000, number of fighters has decreased, recruitment of new ones has become more difficult

Overall assessment: Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal has suffered significant losses, but the organization still has the ability to cause significant damage to Israel and tie up Israeli forces on the northern front. The organization’s ability to maintain current strike levels depends on how quickly it can organize new supply routes from Iran and protect its own production capacity.

Home front supports the army, not the government

A war against Iran has majority support among Israelis, according to a recent INSS survey: Regarding Iran, 78.5% support and 17% oppose the ongoing operation; In Lebanon, belief in success is divided, with 41% believing that the current war against Hezbollah will lead to several years of peace, while 48% believe that the campaign will bring little or very little peace.

The war has not significantly changed Israelis’ trust in key institutions; the army is still the most trusted institution in Israel, according to 77%, while the country’s government only reaches 31%.

Credit: INSS, public domain

My assessment

Iran’s attacks on neighboring Arab countries and attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz seem to have little reason. In my opinion, the explanation for Iran’s actions can be found in a theocratic system, where actions stem from ideology rather than reason. In this sense, overthrowing the clerical regime is the first prerequisite for calming things down in the Middle East.

The US and Israeli air strikes on Iran will reduce both Iran’s missile platforms and the number of missiles directly and indirectly through the destruction of their production facilities. In the coming weeks, I estimate that Iranian missile strikes in the Middle East will stabilize at a level that will allow better air traffic in the area.

A possible US ground operation in the Strait of Hormuz within a couple of weeks will secure international maritime traffic through the strait, thereby stabilizing global energy markets to pre-war levels.

The Israeli ground operation in Lebanon between the Litani River and the border will create a security zone, reducing the threat of Hezbollah rockets and anti-tank missiles targeting Israel’s northern border area and normalizing life in the border areas. Israeli air strikes north of the Litani River, in turn, will reduce the missile and drone threat targeting Israel.

With Iran, the bulk of the work has been done, as long as it continues for a few more weeks, and the creation of a security zone in Lebanon will not take much longer. After these, we are waiting for the final cleansing of Gaza from Hamas so that the clearing work can begin there too and the reconstruction can begin. Syria, Iraq, the West Bank and the Houthis no longer pose a major threat. In Western Europe, the United States and Australia, there will still be enough perpetrators of terrorism and anti-Semites, and instead of Iran, other supporters for them, but this will be the responsibility of others than Israel. The information war is also stabilizing as the lies produced by Hamas and international organizations about starvation and genocide are increasingly being revealed, for example, with the documentary discoveries in Gaza.

In my view, the war will continue beyond Easter, but I do not think this is enough for the successful implementation of the Iranian uprising, as the chains of command of the clerical regime and the Revolutionary Guard plus the militia will remain even if the leadership changes frequently; at least if the army does not open its weapons depots to the revolutionaries or significantly join the uprising. However, the war and attacks on the economic interests and survival of the Revolutionary Guard elite may cause a rift within the elite, allowing the pragmatic and technocratic part of the elite to displace the theocratic part of the Iranian government.

Sources include INSS , Alma Research and Education Center , IDF ja SoMe

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The article first appeared in the online publication Ariel-Israelista suomeksi