Friday, March 20, 2015

Knesset 2015. Post-Election Remarks

1425070416233Israeli voters gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a resounding victory in Tuesday's [17th Mar. 2015] election, despite pre-election polls showing him trailing the Zionist Union. The Zionist Union won close to the total it had been predicted by pollsters, and its 24 seats is more that Labour and Livni’s Hatnua won separately in 2013 (21). However PM Netanyahu’s Likud secured a decisive victory with 30 Knesset seats. Polls before election as well even exit polls differed vastly from the final figures. Sure the Israeli left did better than it has done in almost a generation but it was not enough. One part of leftist campaign was sc V15 – Victory in 2015 - project of the One Voice group. The project was accused of being operated and funded by anti-right groups abroad, which gave the group money to set up an organization that would cause Netanyahu to lose. The group denied that it was representing foreign agents, and the Likud sought to have the group shut down, unsuccessfully.

Netanyahu picked a fight with a sitting U.S. president and declared there will never be a Palestinian State. The Prime Minister’s renunciation of the two-state solution and his boast that he will continue building in east Jerusalem were signs of his new hard-line approach. Netanyahu was able to surge in the last few days, following even a racist campaign that warned right-wing voters of a “left-wing government backed by the Arabs.” The warnings worked and moved 150,000 votes from other right-wing parties into the Likud column in the campaign’s final days which pushed him from 19 percent in the polls before the election to 23 percent on election night and cemented his position as the leader of Israel's right wing. Other right-wing parties were losers – Bennett and the settlers dropped to eight seats in the exit polls from 12, Liberman dropped five, and the far-right Yahad party didn’t even make it in.

As result Israel’s Prime Minister should be able to put together a ruling coalition of center-right parties that is more manageable than his last majority. PM Netanyahu’s nasty campaign alienated major parts of the public in Israel and abroad he put himself in a diplomatic corner e.g with U.S. and EU. The fact that Netanyahu openly campaigned on his opposition to Palestinian statehood means that now he is backed by a majority of Jewish/Israeli voters. Related to U.S PM Netanyahu will need to decide what to do if and when a deal about Iran does go through.
Results

Party
Votes
%
Seats
+/–
984,966
23.40
30
+12
786,075
18.67
24
+3
443,837
10.54
13
+2
370,850
8.81
11
–8
315,202
7.49
10
New
283,559
6.74
8
–4
241,200
5.73
7
–4
215,083
5.11
6
–7
211,826
5.03
6
–1
165,292
3.93
5
–1
125,106
2.97
0
New
47,156
1.12
0
0
Arab List
4,537
0.11
0
New
3,429
0.08
0
0
We are all friends Na Nach
2,502
0.06
0
0
1,977
0.05
0
New
Hope for Change
1,519
0.04
0
0
Economy Party
1,050
0.02
0
0
Flower Party
943
0.02
0
New
941
0.02
0
0
886
0.02
0
0
Living with Dignity
562
0.01
0
0
503
0.01
0
0
Democratura
243
0.01
0
New
223
0.01
0
0
Invalid/blank votes
43,869
1.04
Total
4,253,336
100
120
Registered voters/turnout
5,881,696
72.36
Source: CEC

                                          According to Israel's Central Election Committee, out of a total of 5,878,362 eligible voters 4,253,336 participated in Tuesday's election or 72.3 percent of the electorate. The final election turnout was 4.6% higher than in the previous election and the highest since the 1999 elections, which saw a 78.7% turnout. Furthermore, the electoral threshold for any party to participate in the next Knesset was 136,808 votes with 33,482 votes to equal one mandate. The election resulted in a record number of women (28) being elected to the Knesset.

The new government

President Reuven Rivlin tried before elections to facilitate a Likud/Zionist Union coalition government, however both parties have ruled this option out. There is in theory also a possibility to centre-left government with ZU, Arab list, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and Moshe Kahlon’s centrist party. The winner isn’t the party with the most votes, but the one that can unite several smaller parties together into a governing coalition. In 2009, Netanyahu became prime minister even though the Likud came in second on Election Day. However I think that now these alternatives are unrealistic.

President Rivlin intends to begin meeting the heads of elected Knesset parties on Sunday [22nd Mar. 2015], to receive their recommendations over who should form the next government. This is the first stage in the coalition building process and will almost certainly result in Rivlin inviting Netanyahu to build a coalition. Netanyahu will then have an initial four-week period to complete the process. Netanyahu has already contacted Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett, Yisrael Beitenu head Avigdor Lieberman, Shas chairman Aryeh Deri, United Torah Judaism’s Moshe Gafni and Ya’akov Litzman, plus Kulanu head Moshe Kahlon. A coalition including all of these parties would guarantee a 67 seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Widespread media speculation suggests that Kahlon will become Finance Minister and incumbent Moshe Ya’alon will remain Defence Minister. Naftali Bennett will be appointed either Foreign Minister or Justice Minister. Avigdor Lieberman wants a senior role, but his negotiation position is weak with his Yisrael Beitenu party having secured just 5 seats. Senior Likud MKs including Gilad Erdan and Yuval Steinitz will also expect to be rewarded with prestigious ministerial positions. Meanwhile, Shas leader Aryeh Deri looks likely to become Interior Minister, a job he has previously held, while United Torah Judaism may be rewarded with the health portfolio. Israel-Poll_wednesday

Peace process?

Without any commitment to a two-state solution and Netanyahu’s boast that he will continue building in occupied east Jerusalem may increase pressure – not least from Europe – for moves towards sanctions against Israel. However in his first post-election interview (with Andrea Mitchell of NBC News), Prime Minister Netanyahu backed off his opposition to a Palestinian state. Binyamin Netanyahu has retracted his pre-election statements, according to which he would not allow a Palestinian state to be established. "I don't want a one-state solution. I want a sustainable, peaceful two-state solution," Netanyahu said Thursday [19th Mar.2015, AR] in an interview with MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell. "I haven't changed my policy." Netanyahu said his earlier comments were a reflection of changing conditions on the Palestinian side, pointing to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas's pact to form a unity government with Hamas, which Israel, the U.S. and most European countries consider a terrorist organization. "I'm talking about what is achievable and what is not achievable," Netanyahu said Thursday, insisting that he would support a demilitarized Palestinian state under a plan that would ensure Israel's security. (Source: Virtual Jerusalem )

After earlier reports said that the Palestinian Authority was considering suspending all security cooperation with Israel in the wake of Binyamin Netanyahu's reelection, the PA officially announced Wednesday night that it was hoping to renew talks with Israel, regardless of who was Prime Minister. Nabil Abu-Rudeineh, the PA's official spokesperson, said that the PA has “no interest in the disposition of Israel's Prime Minister. The only thing we are interested in from any Israeli government is the recognition and acceptance of the two-state solution, with Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state.” At a press conference in Ramallah, Abu-Rudeineh said that acceptance of the two state solution was the only basis of negotiation with Israel. (Source: Arutz Sheva ) images8OFOQO83In my opinion a two-state solution is possible. The final status agreement has been very close at least since Beilin-Abu Mazen understandings/agreement/plan (1995) where nearly all issues were agreed. The Olmert proposal (2008) was probably the last serious try. (both plans can be found from my document library )

My conclusions
My forecast is that if centre-right wing government continues after elections so nothing will change in peace process, the same is if there will be Likud/Zionist Union coalition government. If centre-left government will be established there might be a slight chance to go forward. In this case there is no need to start everything from the beginning as Mrs. Livni was participating to long negotiations during Olmert's time. If peace negotiations don't start or they fail again so there always is another option : unilateral actions; e.g. Israel could annex main settlements from West-bank inside the security fence and return to negotiations about other than so solved border issue when both parties feel need to make a long term deal. Not so bad option anyway from my perspective.

One key aspect with peace process is that historically Likud remains the only party to have withdrawn from Israeli territories – first from Sinai in 1982 under then-prime minister Menachem Begin as part of the peace agreement with Egypt and in 2005, under then-prime minister Ariel Sharon, it unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip.

The optimist side of me would like to compare situation now with situation ten years ago. Ariel Sharon was war hero know about his hawkish attitude and his position was strong. After this election PM Netanyahu has now a strong mandate and he could make similar brave decisions and broke deal with Palestinian Authority based two-state solution and -67 armistice line – with land swaps to annex main settlements behind security fence to Israel. Remains to be seen if this optimism will be Utopian – I hope not. 9f57f-images

Monday, March 16, 2015

Knesset 2015: Forecast

1425070416233On 17th March will Israel have voting for new Knesset and it seems to be creating very interesting scenarios for future.  Last polls show that now there is a real possibility to replace PM Netanyahu with centre-left option.  Centre-right Likud is losing elections to Zionist Union which is a new combination of Isaac Herzog's Labor party and Tzipi Livni's Hatnuah.  When PM Netanyahu made decision about early elections he or most analysts hardly were supposing so big change.  It remains to see if possible win of Zionist Union is enough for centre-left led government which could boost Israeli-Palestinian peace process to new track. 
20150314_fbc471
According to the last polls Zionist Union is getting 24-26 Member of Knesset while the ruling Likud only 21 or less and its right-wing ally Habayit Hayehud 11-12 MKs. A new center-right party - Kulany - with its popular leader, ex-Likud minister Moshe Kahlon might get nine MKs and the secular populist party Yesh Atid 12-13 seats..   
Yisrael Beiteinu is now in the danger zone as FM Avigdor Lieberman’s party barely crosses the electoral threshold and will get only four-five seats if any.  By contrast, both Meretz and Yahad have improved their positions, exceeding the electoral threshold and getting five-six seats.   The religious parties tend to be keeping their positions.  Following the raising of the electoral threshold the main Arab parties - Balad, Hadash, the southern branch of the Islamic Movement, Ta'al and the United Arab List - agreed to run on the same list in the election, this Joint List, could increase turnout amongst Arab voters to 56%, 10% higher than in the 2013 elections. However, the more hardline northern branch of the Islamic Movement opted to boycott the elections, along the Abnaa el-Balad (Sons of the Village) movement. One interesting detail is that Kadima party is not running in this election at all.
 
2896217285
One should make note that the margin of error in Israeli polls is quite high - some four per cent up or down. However if the winner is ZU so there is a huge challenge to form new government - actually putting together a coalition will be very difficult. Herzog would have to persuade parties like Meretz and Yisrael Beiteinu to sit together, and convince one or more Haredi parties to cooperate with Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid. Arab parties probably prefer centre-left government more than other alternatives. 
As sources I have used e.g following election pages:  JStreet, Haaretz,  Bicom.
Peace process
Solving Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not on top of the agenda in this elections .  However the new government will have its impact to peace process to one way or other.  In infograph below there is positions of parties related to main issues of Israeli-Palestianian conflict.  Credits for the figure belong to  MEMO –Middle East Monitorille.
 

My forecast is that if Zionist Union can form the new government there will be improvement with Israeli-Palestinian peace process based on two-state solution.  If Herzog and Netanyahu create unlikely joint government so probably nothing new with this issue will be invented.  If the new government is right-wing dominated so then there is possibility that Israel will carry out some unilateral actions such as officially annex main settlements to Israel.
israel-flag-bandeira
 

Monday, March 9, 2015

From History: "Beilin - Abu Mazen Plan"



Image result for beilin abu mazen documentIn 1993,  under the direction of Yasser Arafat's deputy, Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) held secret negotiations with Israel's then–Deputy Foreign Minister, Yossi Beilin.  The negotiations gave birth to the "Beilin–Abu Mazen Understandings," (or Beilin-Abu Mazen plan or Beilin-Abu Mazen document) the first-ever draft of a final status agreement.
Beilin had worked as a journalist and as a lecturer in political science before going into politics in the mid-80's. He quickly established himself in the Labor Party's Young Guard as a militant moderate and as an advocate of equal rights for Israel's Arab minority and reconciliation with the Palestinians.Right at the beginning, Beilin went straight to Arafat (while he was still in Tunisia) to ask him to join in an effort to work out principles for a final agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. Arafat agreed and delegated the job to his closest advisor, Mahmoud Abbas, known also as Abu Mazen.
From the democratic point of view Yossi Beilin's action was questinable.  Behind the backs of an elected prime minister (Yitzhak Rabin) and foreign minister (Shimon Peres), a deputy cabinet minister over a period of two years held fateful talks with the national enemy. The agreement was negotiated in secret in Oslo and Stockholm by a team of Palestinian and Israeli negotiators, under the supervision of Beilin for Israel, and of Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) for the Palestinian side and was finalized in October 1995. 
Yossi Beilin returned to get the approval of Prime Minister Rabin.    However, by the time Beilin had returned to Israel, Yitshak Rabin had been assassinated by Yigal Amir. Shimon Peres was unwilling to go forward with the agreement, and likewise, apparently, Abu-Mazen was not able to find support for it on the Palestinian side. However, many of the ideas contained in this agreement were carried forward to other negotiations, and are reflected in draft agreements regarding refugee status and Jerusalem, as well as status of the settlements and the principle of territorial exchange.
But when the document was leaked to the press, Abbas tried to distance himself from it and to minimize its importance. The document was never formally published and never adopted by the Israelis or the Palestinians. PLO officials disavowed its existence, but the proposal found its way into circulation. Although the proposal was never completely accepted, some of the ideas presented in it were thought to be good compromises in resolving certain issues in final status negotiations later on.
  • Borders: Israel will withdraw to the 1967 armistige line/borders, except for certain territorial exchanges (land swaps).  Israel would agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state on most of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
  • Settlements: Israelis remaining within the borders of the Palestinian State would be subject to Palestinian sovereignty and Palestinian rule of law. They would be offered Palestinian citizenship or could choose to remain as alien residents
  • Jerusalem: Related to Jerusalem one Municipality would be maintained in the form of a Joint Higher Municipal Council, with two (Israeli and Palestinian) sub-municipalities. The Palestinian boroughs would be under Palestinian sovereignty; the Israeli boroughs under Israeli sovereignty.  The Western part of the city, would be the capital of Israel, called "Yerushalayim"; the Arab Eastern part would be the capital of Palestine, called "al-Quds".
  • Refugees: Whereas the Israeli side acknowledges the moral and material suffering caused to the Palestinian people as a result of the war of 1947-1949. It further acknowledges the Palestinian refugees' right of return to the Palestinian state and their right to compensation and rehabilitation for moral and material losses. In turn, the Palestinians would give up their right of return to Israel proper and instead encourage Palestinian refugees to settle in the new Palestinian state.
 
Follow-up
In January 1997, Beilin and Michael Eitan, a Likud Member of Knesset, announced that they had arrived at a set of guiding principles for Israel's negotiating position in the final status talks, quite similar to the reported details of the Beilin-Abu Mazen Plan. The Beilin-Eitan Agreement was released as the Likud-Labor consensus on a permanent agreement with the Palestinians. Neither the Likud nor Labor leadership has endorsed the Beilin-Eitan plan.
At Camp David in 2000  Israel practically proposed the Beilin-Abu Mazen formula to the Palestinians. It was a little less on the settlements, a little more on Jerusalem. Afterward, in the months following Camp David, Israel went much further and proposed n enhanced version of the Beilin-Abu Mazen formula to the Palestinians.
At Taba, Israel offered the Palestinians a super-enhanced version of Beilin-Abu Mazen, but even the super-enhanced version could not bring home the Palestinians.
 
Conclusion
Beilin and Abu Mazen managed to produce what seemed to be the first solid evidence that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is soluble. They  had drawn up Documents solemnly declaring that no serious problem stood in the way of a peace treaty with the Palestinians - not Jerusalem, nor Jewish settlements in the territories, nor the Palestinian demand for a right of return for their refugees. The document shows what the real back channel work can achieve.
The text below - as well in my document library - is unofficial, but is believed to be substantially correct. It is believed that in addition, there may have been informal letters exchanged concerning the status of Jerusalem and other matters that were not made public.


Tuesday, February 3, 2015

The Mass Exodus of Kosovo Albanians

"Kosovo, alles Scheiße. Serbien, auch Scheiße. Deutschland, das ist gut. Da kann man arbeiten, fünf Euro die Stunde, egal ob schwarz oder nicht, es ist besser." (Rexhep Kurteshi)
The greatest exodus from Kosovo since the 1998-99 war has started. More than 15 years after NATO bombing Kosovo is witnessing a dramatic surge in the number of its citizens smuggling themselves across Serbia's border into Hungary and push westwards to the likes of Germany and Switzerland through the EU's borderless Schengen zone. Since August 2014, when exodus from Kosovo began, until last December, it is estimated that about 100,000 people has left Kosovo, and from the beginning of this year 50,000 more, although no one officially wants to say it, writes Pristina daily “Bota Sot”. That is six per cent of population. Hungary and Austria have both reported a sudden rise in migration from Kosovo. In only two months between 50,000 and 120,000 ethnic Albanians have left Kosovo in a wave migration to western European countries.

The Kosovar media has reported that as many as 20,000 people are leaving the tiny country of around two million people each month in a bid to escape corruption, poverty and soaring unemployment. The Hungarian Embassy in Kosovo estimates the number of Kosovo Albanians in Hungary could be as high as 60,000, according to Balkan Insight.
The education ministry of Kosovo released on mid-February "alarming statistics" showing that 5,200 children dropped out of school in recent months to follow their parents abroad. In addition 60,000 Kosovo Albanians applying now for Serbs passport as they need visa for Schengen area but Serbs not. On 12th Feb 2014 Serbian security forces stepped up patrols and deployed an elite unit on its border with Hungary, trying to halt a torrent of migrants that has triggered alarm in many European Union countries.

German figures released on Monday, February 9 show a significant increase in asylum applications from Kosovars - from 1,956 applications in December to 3,630 in January. Germany's interior ministry announced on 12th Feb. 2015 it was sending 20 police officers to the border between Hungary and Serbia to help control a surge in the number of asylum seekers heading into the European Union and ultimately to Germany with its generous welfare benefits. It said authorities would prioritize asylum applications of Kosovo citizens, deciding on them within two weeks and stepping up efforts to show Germany is not an easy place to get applications through. Germany rejected about 99 percent of asylum applications from Kosovars last year and in January the approval rate was even lower, at 0.3 percent. (More in DW )

To gain asylum, applicants must show they would faced persecution if they returned to their home country. The interior ministry has also signaled it is open to changing the law - possibly making it easier to deport asylum seekers from Kosovo by making it a country of safe origin - but it has said that this is not the priority for now. The aim of ministry is to make decisions about asylum in three months while the process now takes from six to seven months. ( Source and more in Frankfurter Allgemeine )

One consequence about this exodus especially in Germany and Austria is that Kosovo Albanians are blocking space and services from those asylum seekers who have real need to flee from their homeland, e.g. Syria and Iraq.

Why now? The reason for leaving now, according to many of the migrants, is an easing of the travel restrictions, which used to prevent them leaving Kosovo, and travelling across Serbia. One should note that especially Germany has demanded improvement of cooperation between Serbia and Kosovo. One part of cooperation is that Kosovo Albanians can travel with their ID to borders and then to try illegally enter to EU. Also migrants spoken to by Reuters reporters suggest smugglers have found safer routes across the border, and word of mouth has triggered an exodus. infografik-fluechtlinge-aus
The reason: Hopes are gone

According to the UN, 35 percent of people in Kosovo are unemployed and nearly 30 percent of the country lives in poverty. After elections Kosovo got last December new government and since then more and more Kosovo Albanians are trying to escape from their country. It seems that Kosovo Albanians have lost all hope for better living in Kosovo – poverty and a lack of prospects might be two reasons why they're searching better future from Germany.

The analyst Fatmir Seholi believes that the governments of Kosovo were never serious about the international reports on the progress of Kosovo which are continuously talking about the poor economic conditions in Kosovo. Referring to the data of the Association “Mother Teresa”, which operates in Kosovo, Seholi says that 18 percent of the population lives in extreme poverty with 0.90 eurocents per day, while 27 percent of them live in poverty with only 1.40 euros a day, and that unemployment in Kosovo is over 60 percent. The greatest enemy of Kosovo, says Seholi, is corruption, organized crime and “client-based” access to employment in Kosovo institutions. “People expected changes after the elections in June last year and seeing that nothing will change, hopes are gone and they now have their own and the fate of their families risked by going to the EU countries,” he said. (Source InNews )
flucht-aus-der-armut But the unemployment may not be the main cause for emigration. In a matter of few weeks the Pristina-based construction company "Pozhegu Brothers" has witnessed a sudden decline of its workforce in a wave of illegal emigration that has hit Kosovo in recent months. The company says that it has lost 40 members of its workforce for the purpose of emigrating for a better life and prosperity into a European Union (EU) country. They stress that each of them was a qualified and experienced worker, and in terms of financial sustainability each of them earned between 350 and 600 euros a month. Other companies and businesses are reporting the same problem of workforce resigning from jobs for emigrating purposes. (Source: ShanghaiDaily )

For me this sounds very strange as in Balkans and especially in Kosovo 350-600 € per month is really good salary. On the other hand a couple of years ago I was informed that that poor people from Bulgaria came to pick grapes to Kosovo as the local ones did not accept so low compensation as paid for that that job. Poverty seems to be relative issue. Here one excerpt from BBC-story: "It started last summer as several dozen a day. Now it is several thousand a day," says Laszlo Torockai, mayor of Asotthalom, a village of 4,000 people [in Hungary]. "We sympathise with those fleeing war zones - the Syrians and Iraqis - but less so with those fleeing poverty. Many have smart phones and follow their progress by GPS. Few of my constituents, whose doors they knock on in the middle of the night, can afford phones like those.

Strategic mistakes as background
The only thing the Albanians were able to demonstrate was their insignificance, inability, cowardice and dependency on others (NATO) to save them from the horrible mess they created. Albanian success was in demonstrating terror, crime and inventing history! Albanian solidarity was in their incompetence and collective failure to achieve anything throughout their entire (short) history on their own! The ONLY time albanians are in the news is because of their crimes and acts of terror. (Mike in netforum)
I agree with those who claim that it is clear that Kosovo’s secession from Serbia, as well as its hasty recognition as an independent state, was a mistake. The current wave of refugees confirms that Kosovo cannot endure as a state. The insignificant economic base was easy to see when creation of the state of Kosovo was ongoing. Official statistics from year 2008 shows that export from Kosovo amounted about 200 million Euro while import increased to 2 billion Euro, which makes trade balance almost 1,800 million Euro minus. If export is covering some 10 percent of import so from where is money coming to this consumption. The estimate is that when export brings mentioned 71 million Euro the organised crime (mainly drug trafficking) brings 1 billion Euro, diaspora gives 500 million Euro and international community 200 million Euro.

After bombing Serbia 1999 KLA (Kosovo Liberation Army) leaders changed their organized crime clans officially to political parties. This public image however can not hide the origins of money and power, old channels and connections are still in place in conservative tribe society. Last ten years now political leaders have whitewashed their drugs- and other OC-money by establishing façade-firms as well real enterprises, by success in donor funded investment projects and through privatisation process.

The real power in Kosovo lays with 15 to 20 family clans who control “almost all substantial key social positions” and are closely linked to prominent political decision makers. German intelligence services (BND) have concluded for example that Prime Minister Thaçi is a key figure in a Kosovar-Albanian mafia network. Two German intelligence reports – BND report 2005 and BND-IEP report Kosovo 2007 – are giving clear picture about connection between politics and organized crime; both reports can be found from my document library under headline Kosovo. (For background see also my article Kosovo: Two years of Pseudo-state ).
SL6 Bottom line

the late 1990s Serbia was bombed by NATO for the purpose of Kosovo independence. Now the Kosovo people, the ethnic Albanians, under the EU/NATO/US umbrella, are fleeing Kosovo in droves. Ironically one would think, that after being bombed over Kosovo the Serbs would just let the peasants cross into Hungary and be the EUs problem. Besides since the EU wanted Kosovo to be independent, and Kosovo and Albania are candidates for EU membership, one would think the EU would be welcoming these Kosovo Albanians with red carpet.

In my previous articles – e.g in Captured Pseudo-State Kosovo - I have portrayed Kosovo with quite dark colours. I have summarized Kosovo
“as Serbian province, occupied and now international protectorate administrated by UN Kosovo mission; as quasi-independent pseudo-state has good change to become next “failed” or “captured” state; today’s Kosovo is already safe-heaven for war criminals, drug traffickers, international money laundry and radical Wahhabists – unfortunately all are also allies of western powers”.
So what can be done? From my perspective everything went wrong when mid-90’s Germany and U.S. selected strategy to support Croatian Nazis, Bosnian jihadists and Kosovo Albanian mafia with their separatist intentions while same time demonizing Serbs. As result Croatia got independency, Bosnia-Herzegovina came artificial creature in Dayton and Kosovo as international protectorate. From year 1999 international community has squandered billions of euros for its state-building efforts and after 15 years Bosnia-Herzegovina is even more dysfunctional than before western interventions and Kosovo is transforming itself from failed to captured state.

The way out in Kosovo in my opinion starts from first recognizing made mistakes while selecting sides and then cleaning old allies and present day ruling elite – organized crime clans – out from their administrative positions; EULEX rule and law mission could be good tool for this job. Only from this clean base the capacity building activities of state and local administration can be successful. The new start could lead into more democratic independent Kosovo, the outcome could also be renewed autonomy as part of Serbia, or integrating Northern Serb populated area to Serbia, or cantonization depending of interests of local stakeholders. Anyway each of these follow-ups from my perspective are better for Kosovo as well Serbia than situation today.  

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Russia's Strategic Shift To East Continues: Now India

The steadfast support of the people of Russia for India has been there even at difficult moments in our history. It has been a pillar of strength for India's development, security and international relations. India, too, has always stood with Russia through its own challenges. The character of global politics and international relations is changing. However, the importance of this relationship and its unique place in India's foreign policy will not change. In many ways, its significance to both countries will grow further in the future.”
( Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi)
Russia and India made 20 deals in 24 hours (on 11th Dec. 2014) given $100 billion-worth boost to their economies. The economic burden of Western sanctions has pushed Russia to the east in search of business opportunities. During President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India in the presence of he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi 20 pacts were signed and the two sides ended with US$100 billion commercial contracts. (Source RT )
Rich pickings by both sides included deals worth $40 billion in nuclear energy, $50 billion in crude oil and gas and $10 billion in a host of other sectors, including defense, fertilizers, space, and diamonds. Moscow is seeking greater investment from Indian state-run companies in Russian oil and gas projects, including ones being explored in the Arctic.
https://arirusila.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/b688a-161718759.jpg
New Indo-Russian deals
Putin’s just-ended India trip constitutes a major foreign policy success for the Russian President as he has successfully teamed up with China and India, Asia’s number one and third economies respectively. Some highlights of the Indo-Russia deals:
  • india nuclearRussia would be constructing 12 new nuclear reactors for India in two decades - each will cost $3 billion apiece.

  • Russia holds the world’s second-biggest natural gas reserves and is among the globe’s biggest oil producers. Among the agreements today was a 10-year deal that will raise Indian imports of Russian oil almost 40-fold from current levels. The two nations plan to study the possibility of building a hydrocarbon pipeline system connecting India and Russia, according to a joint statement from Putin and Modi.
  • The $2.1 billion deal that 12 Indian companies dealing in diamonds have signed with Alrosa. Russia’s diamond reserves are more than 1 billion carats, the largest in the world, while Russia’s Alrosa accounts for more than quarter of the global diamond mining.
  • BrahMos cruise missileReviving their good old defense partnership the new Indo-Russian initiative involves Russia producing state-of-the-art multi-role helicopters in Indian factories to cut down on costs and time overruns. This deal will be worth $3 billion once formally signed. In addition India will be at liberty to export these helicopters to third countries.
  • In addition there was also the $2 billion potash deal.
  • Russia would look at participating in the Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor project.
  • Moscow is seeking greater investment from Indian state-run companies in Russian oil and gas projects, including ones being explored in the Arctic.
  • Both governments have set-up a Joint working group (JWG) to negotiate the specifications of an agreement, a final agreement would be signed between India and Eurasian Customs Union
(Sources: Al Jazeera , Bloomberg and RT )
The first major political initiative, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, between India and Russia began with the Strategic Partnership signed between the two countries in 2000. Traditionally, the Indo-Russian strategic partnership has been built on five major components: politics, defence, civil nuclear energy, anti-terrorism co-operation and space. However, in recent years a sixth component, economic, has grown in importance with both countries setting a target for US$20 billion in bilateral trade by 2015. The Indo-Russian Inter-Governmental Commission (IRIGC), which is one of the largest and comprehensive governmental mechanisms that India has had with any country internationally.
T50 stealth fighterIndia and Russia have several major joint military programmes including (Source WikiPedia ):

The critics
According The Hindu U.S. is upset at India-Russia deals. A day after Russian President Putin’s visit, the United States criticised India for the agreements signed between New Delhi and Moscow. Responding to a question on the 20 agreements signed, including one on the Rupee-Rouble trade, State department spokesperson Jen Psaki said, “Our view remains that it’s not time– for business as usual with Russia. But beyond that, we’d have to take a closer look at what these agreements entail.”
The U.S. and Ukraine have also expressed unhappiness that President Putin was accompanied by the Crimean Premier Sergey Aksyonov. Mr. Aksyonov is on the sanctions list of the U.S., Canada and European Union for his role in the accession of the former Ukrainian region to Russia in March this year. Mr. Aksyonov initialled a “partnership agreement” between Crimean and Indian businesses, particularly in the area of meat exports. The meeting with the Crimean Prime Minister followed Russia’s decision to allow the import of Indian buffalo meat last week. While the U.S. state department said it was “troubled” by his presence in New Delhi, Ukranian President Petro Poroshenko accused India of putting “money” ahead of “values” and “civilisation”.
Wider context
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The wider picture - besides new Indo-Russian cooperation - includes the Sino-Russian cooperation, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union EEU, the energy war and other bilateral operations. Faced with an increasingly hostile West, Russia is visibly turning East. In particular, China and Russia have become closer, signing a historic gas deal, conducting joint naval exercises, and increasing trade. Russia and China are determined to reduce U.S. and NATO presence in Central Asia to what it was before the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. The SCO has consistently rebuffed U.S. requests for observer status, and has pressured countries in the region to end U.S. basing rights. At present, the SCO has started to counterbalance NATO’s role in Asia.
bricsThe BRICS met 2013 in Durban, South Africa, to, among other steps, create their own credit rating agency, sidelining the “biased agendas” of the Moody’s/Standard & Poor’s variety. They endorsed plans to create a joint foreign exchange reserves pool. Initially it will include US$100 billion. It’s called a self-managed contingent reserve arrangement (CRA). During the July (2014) BRICS Summit in Brazil the five members agreed to directly confront the West’s institutional economic dominance. The BRICS agreed to establish the New Development Bank (NDB) based in Shanghai , pushed especially by India and Brazil, a concrete alternative to the Western-dominated World Bank and the Bretton Woods system.
So in near future BRICS will be trading in their own currencies, including a globally convertible yuan, further away from the US dollar and the petrodollar. All these actions are strengthening financial stability of BRICS – a some kind of safety net precaution, an extra line of defense.
Less than a month after the BRICS’ declaration of independence from the current strictures of world finance, the SCO—which includes China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—approved India, Pakistan, Iran, and Mongolia for membership in the organization. Also SCO has received applications for the status of observers from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Bottom line
China and Turkey are now followed by Indo-Russian cooperation. Russia's President Vladimir Putin held talks with India's new prime minister Narendra Modi as sanctions-hit Moscow seeks to strengthen energy, defence and strategic ties in Asia. India opposes joining Western sanctions against Russia, and is likely to disregard a caution from Washington that now is not the right time to do business with Moscow.
Most importantly, the just-concluded 15th India-Russia annual summit has laid out a specific decadal roadmap for bringing about a complete transformation in the Indo-Russian bilateral ties and taking them to a much higher trajectory than ever before.
The latest developments in Russia's strategic shift to East and now to India are in my opinion a strong symptom that alternative poles of power are emerging that soon may present a serious challenge to the U.S.-dominated world that emerged from the end of the Cold War. In my conclusion the era when the IMF, World Bank, and U.S. Treasury could essentially dictate international finances and intimidate or crush opponents with sanctions, pressure and threads are drawing to a close.
The great Eurasian axis between China and Russia boosted by ongoing Western sanctions due Ukraine is already in good motion. The deal done with China and the deal just done with Turkey redirect to these two countries gas that had previously been earmarked for Europe. (More in Is South Stream Pipeline Transforming Itself To “Turk Stream”? ) These deals show that Russia had made a strategic decision this year to redirect its energy flow away from Europe. The Russian response to ongoing Western sanctions has been launching a counter-strategy including the formation of a potential non-dollar trading bloc among major players such as China, Iran, Turkey, India) in the global energy markets. (More about issue in ¥uan and Waterloo of Petro$ ; see also some geostrategic background in my slideshow Some Geostrategic Aspects in Russia vs. U.S. Relationship )
indo-russia deals