June 18, 2025
Iran has responded with massive missile and drone strikes to Israel’s preemptive airstrike on nuclear facilities and military targets on Friday, June 13, 2025, supported by smaller-scale operations inside Iran by the Mossad. Israel’s initial strike caused severe damage to the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities and crippled numerous defense systems and ballistic missile production facilities.
Israel’s stated goals are, first, to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program and, second, to stop the country’s missile program. An unofficial indirect goal, I assume, is to change Iran’s theocratic regime.
There are no signs yet of regime change in Iran, although on the other hand, there have been demonstrations in Iran and abroad supporting Israel’s strikes. Inside Iran, the current government is based on the religious population of the countryside and the Revolutionary Guard. The civilized, secular, young and unarmed population of the cities is too powerless to make a change; the situation may change in the future if Iran’s ethnic groups on the periphery – such as the Kurds – begin to demand greater autonomy after the Revolutionary Guard’s power has been sufficiently weakened.
Attacks on Israel’s home front reinforce the urgency of Israel’s campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Any of the hundreds of ballistic missiles launched at Israel could have been equipped with nuclear warheads if Iran had been allowed to achieve its goal.
As things stand, Israel will not achieve its first goal. Although several nuclear facilities [Natanz and Parchin being the most important] have already been largely destroyed, the most significant of them, the Fordow facility, located about 80 meters below sea level, has not yet been significantly damaged.
The second goal seems to be being met. Iran still possesses thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles, so at the current intensity of the war it can carry out attacks on Israel for a couple of weeks, while Israel can do this for even longer with its air superiority and capacity. It is also possible that Iran will quickly manufacture a so-called dirty bomb from the radioactive material it possesses, which could be used by cells operating in the West.
Against the background presented above, I see three alternative scenarios for the end of the war:
1) Israel destroys Iran’s nuclear weapons program using its tactical nuclear weapons,
2) The US destroys Iran’s nuclear weapons program using or lending its strategic bombers capable of carrying the heaviest bunker busters with which, for example, the Fordow facility, which is almost a hundred meters underground, can be destroyed.
3) Iran is ready to give up its nuclear weapons program in the nuclear negotiations and guarantee international inspectors full and free access to its country to verify the promised abandonment.
My own assessment is that the US will use any aid it may give to Israel as leverage to persuade Iran to sign an agreement to ensure the destruction of its nuclear weapons program.
The full version of this article first appeared in the Finnish online publication Ariel-Israelista Suomeksi
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