Iran’s nuclear weapons program destroyed

President Donald Trump on Saturday (June 21, 25) announced a “very successful strike” on three of Iran’s nuclear weapons sites, including Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan. In my article about the Israel-Iran war and how it will end less than a week ago, I presented another scenario

The destruction of the US nuclear weapons program, or to borrow a strategy, its bombers will respond by carrying the heaviest bunker busters from their facilities, such as Fordow, nearly a hundred meters underground.

This scenario now appears to have come true.

Earlier in May 2025, the IAEA estimated that more than 400 kilograms of uranium hexafluoride gas had already been enriched to 60 percent – a level that is considered highly enriched. This material is under international control and is enough for about 10 nuclear weapons.

Trump has publicly criticized his national intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard and said she was wrong when she claimed that there was no evidence that Iran was building a nuclear weapon. Israel has claimed that Iran is capable of producing a nuclear warhead.

The Iranian foreign minister toured the world last week, meeting with EU leaders, among others, to convince them that Iran may have a nuclear weapons program. It would be sensible for him to convey the message that the program in question will be terminated unconditionally. This would have taken a couple of days for the B2 bombers that left Missouri to refuel, which is why they were not sent without full fuel tanks on board due to the payload (=MOB bunker busters). Well, now the negotiations are continuing because Iran does not (anymore) have a nuclear weapons program.

Two days ago, Trump gave about two weeks to get a result from the negotiations on the war between Israel and Iran. Now Trump seems to be implementing the same negotiation strategy as in the first term by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and thus removing it from the negotiation agenda. Now Iran’s nuclear program has apparently been removed from the agenda, now it is necessary to take care of ending the external war between Israel and Iran and ending Iran’s support for the Houthis. Overly optimistic, negotiations on the human rights of Iran or the rights of Kurdistan will be expected, at least the EU did not have the space to be too careless. Trump said – after the Iranian attack – “now is the time for peace”.

How The Israel-Iran War Will End

June 18, 2025

Iran has responded with massive missile and drone strikes to Israel’s preemptive airstrike on nuclear facilities and military targets on Friday, June 13, 2025, supported by smaller-scale operations inside Iran by the Mossad. Israel’s initial strike caused severe damage to the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities and crippled numerous defense systems and ballistic missile production facilities.

Israel’s stated goals are, first, to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program and, second, to stop the country’s missile program. An unofficial indirect goal, I assume, is to change Iran’s theocratic regime.

There are no signs yet of regime change in Iran, although on the other hand, there have been demonstrations in Iran and abroad supporting Israel’s strikes. Inside Iran, the current government is based on the religious population of the countryside and the Revolutionary Guard. The civilized, secular, young and unarmed population of the cities is too powerless to make a change; the situation may change in the future if Iran’s ethnic groups on the periphery – such as the Kurds – begin to demand greater autonomy after the Revolutionary Guard’s power has been sufficiently weakened.

Attacks on Israel’s home front reinforce the urgency of Israel’s campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Any of the hundreds of ballistic missiles launched at Israel could have been equipped with nuclear warheads if Iran had been allowed to achieve its goal.

As things stand, Israel will not achieve its first goal. Although several nuclear facilities [Natanz and Parchin being the most important] have already been largely destroyed, the most significant of them, the Fordow facility, located about 80 meters below sea level, has not yet been significantly damaged.

The second goal seems to be being met. Iran still possesses thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles, so at the current intensity of the war it can carry out attacks on Israel for a couple of weeks, while Israel can do this for even longer with its air superiority and capacity. It is also possible that Iran will quickly manufacture a so-called dirty bomb from the radioactive material it possesses, which could be used by cells operating in the West.

Against the background presented above, I see three alternative scenarios for the end of the war:

1) Israel destroys Iran’s nuclear weapons program using its tactical nuclear weapons,

2) The US destroys Iran’s nuclear weapons program using or lending its strategic bombers capable of carrying the heaviest bunker busters with which, for example, the Fordow facility, which is almost a hundred meters underground, can be destroyed.

3) Iran is ready to give up its nuclear weapons program in the nuclear negotiations and guarantee international inspectors full and free access to its country to verify the promised abandonment.

My own assessment is that the US will use any aid it may give to Israel as leverage to persuade Iran to sign an agreement to ensure the destruction of its nuclear weapons program.

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