January 30, 2025
“Almost everything is demolished and people are dying there…So I’d rather get involved with some of the Arab nations and build housing at a different location where maybe they can live in peace for a change.” (Donald Trump)
US President Donald Trump said on Saturday [January 25, 2025] that he had spoken with Jordan’s King Abdullah II about relocating Palestinian refugees to Jordan and Egypt. He also said he planned to speak to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi about the issue. Trump described Gaza as a “demolition site,” adding “I would rather get involved with some of the Arab nations and build housing at a different location where maybe they can live in peace for a change.” He added that the change “could be temporary” or “could be long-term.”
President Trump’s idea is reminiscent of the three-state (restoration) model I have previously proposed, in which Gaza, formerly under Egyptian control, would be returned to direct Egyptian control in an expanded form (the Sinai Option), and Areas A and B of the West Bank, formerly under Jordanian control and now under the control of the Palestinian Authority, would be returned to Jordanian control (the Jordan Option). This model has not gained significant international support, but with President Trump, the model could perhaps be updated to be viable.
From my perspective, this Three-State [restoration] model is both pragmatic and feasible, and more relevant than ever. The solution would restore the situation – with the exception of Israeli settlements in Area C – to the situation between the 1949 armistice and the 1967 “Six-Day War.”
The Jordanian Option
For 19 years, Judea and Samaria were part of Jordan after it was occupied by the Arab states following Israel’s independence in 1948, and after Jordan established its settlements in the occupied territory. By also annexing Areas A and B of the area currently known as the West Bank to Jordan, the Palestinians would become part of already developed state structures, regional self-government solutions through autonomy, federal or confederation models would secure the later developed cultural identity of the Palestinians and, on the other hand, Jordan’s internal security.
With the Jordanian Option, Israel would gain a neighbor with whom it already has a decades-old peace treaty and experience of peaceful coexistence.
With the development of the community structures and democracy in the annexed area, the Palestinians could also form their own state in the longer term from the areas they control and possibly Gaza.
In Israel, the so-called ‘Jordanian Option’ always extends to the so-called Until the Allon Plan of 1967. According to the “Jordan is Palestine” idea, a Palestinian state already exists in the form of Jordan east of the Jordan River. Similarly, a Palestinian-Jordanian confederation has been proposed as an idea for decades.
The Sinai Option
The Sinai Option is not a new option for resolving the conflict between Egypt, Gaza, and Israel. According to a report by the Middle East Monitor (MEMO) [01.09.2014], Egypt offered Palestinian Authority President Abbas a Palestinian state in Sinai. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi offered the Palestinian Authority 620 square miles of land adjacent to Gaza in exchange for giving up demands for the 1967 borders to establish a Palestinian state. PA President Abbas rejected the proposal. Speaking at a meeting of Fatah leaders in Ramallah, Abbas said: “The plan proposed in 1956 included the annexation of 1,600 square kilometers from the Sinai Peninsula to the Gaza Strip to accommodate Palestinian refugees.” He continued: “The plan is being proposed again, but we rejected it.”
The original Egyptian initiative proposed expanding the Gaza Strip to five times its current size and settling all Gazans and Palestinian refugees in a facility to be established there. In addition, the Palestinian Authority would be granted autonomy in Palestinian cities in the West Bank in exchange for abandoning Palestinian demands to return to the 1967 borders.
The Sinai Option became the focus of the 2004 Herzliya Conference, a gathering where Israel’s political, academic, and security elites traditionally develop new policy ideas. In 2004, a so-called tripartite model was proposed for the option, in which part of Sinai would be handed over to the Palestinian state, Israel would get most of the West Bank, and Egypt would get a land corridor through the Negev desert to Jordan. Another variation was the Giora Eiland plan in 2004, according to which Israel would withdraw from Gaza, which was implemented a year later, the expansion of Gaza into Sinai, for which Egypt would in turn receive land from the Negev as compensation, and 89% of the West Bank would be handed over to the Palestinians. (The Herzliya Papers and Eiland’s plan can be found on my main blog document library page)
In the last decade, the option has resurfaced, with PLO veteran Farouk Kaddoumi proposing in an interview the return of the West Bank to Jordan and the formation of a federation or confederation between the Palestinian Authority and Jordan. (See more Palestinians Put Jordanian Option on the Table )
Short-term solution
With Gaza’s already poor water and sewage systems partially destroyed, power supply minimal, roads and buildings largely destroyed, and the remaining hospitals operating at their limits, a humanitarian crisis has arisen in a situation where most Gazans have been forced to move away from the fighting to safer areas
Gazans can in principle move to three areas:
- Gazans can return to their home areas; the problem is that most of the buildings and infrastructure in the area have been destroyed, especially in the northern parts of Gaza.
- Gazans can be placed in designated protected areas in southern Gaza. The downside is that Hamas would likely exploit this to protect its fighters.
- Gazans can temporarily move to Sinai. Egypt is currently strongly opposed to the idea.
Theoretically, Gazans could be accepted as refugees around the world, but since no one is ready to do so in practice, the options are limited to Gaza and its surrounding areas.
I have previously presented the Sinai Option-based Day After the Gaza War plan to immediately address the humanitarian crisis for Gazans, to rebuild the devastated Palestinian territory in the medium term, and to implement a two-state solution in the long term.
In my opinion, the only practical and quick solution is to build a temporary Gaza settlement on the Egyptian-Gaza border, whereby Gazans who have moved to safe areas in southern Gaza would only need to move 1-10 kilometers southwest of their current locations.
Rebuilding Gaza in the traditional way compared to the Sinai Option would take significantly more time and resources, and even so, the reconstructed area would not be nearly as viable as a larger virgin area.
Gaza has been rebuilt again and again after previous conflicts, but Hamas has always taken some of the funds intended for reconstruction for its own use, including building the Gaza Metro, missile and weapons production, and the luxury lifestyle of its elite. If Turkish and Egyptian construction companies are now responsible for the construction work instead of Hamas, under the strict supervision of the international community, previous mistakes can be minimized.
The implementation of the Sinai Option is now even more timely than before. Trump is right to describe Gaza as a “demolition site”, the clearance alone is estimated to take at least five years, even longer if the dead in the ruins and tunnels are to be found. The reason for adopting the option is that when most of Gaza’s infrastructure is destroyed, clearing the area would take significantly more time and money.
With the Sinai Option, Gazans would be able to return to normal life at least half a decade earlier than in the traditional way – without slowing down the clearance process. Temporary accommodation with services in the virgin area can also be implemented quickly and with high quality. A good example of this is the Mina Valley, which is located 8 kilometers southeast of the city of Mecca in the Hejaz region of Saudi Arabia and is commonly known as the “city of tents”. Mina is the world’s largest tent city, built on an area of about 20 km2, and can accommodate up to three million pilgrims in over 100,000 air-conditioned tents. (I wrote about this earlier in my article about Saudi Mina as a model for the Gaza camp)
My assessment
During Trump’s previous term, the US administration discussed with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan a regional “umbrella” for possible peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. In my opinion, promoting a Palestinian state based on the Sinai and Jordan options could lead to a regional peace process that would be feasible through a mutual agreement between Egypt, Jordan and Israel, supported by the Arab League. The emergence of a viable and peaceful Palestinian state would require at least a decade of construction work in this scenario as well. This is my opinion, at least based on my experiences in Kosovo, having participated in work there on the ground.
In short, if Trump’s vision were realized in the short term, it would significantly improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza, accelerate community and housing construction to meet the needs of Gazans, eliminate the Hamas threat to Egypt and Israel, and in the longer term lay the foundation for a viable Palestinian territory as an autonomy or independent state.
The Sinai option, if implemented, would affect Gazans and other Palestinians moving there, while the Jordan option would also allow Palestinians in the West Bank to benefit more widely from the project. Israel, in turn, would benefit from the security of the options, along with its peaceful neighbors with clearly defined borders.
Trump’s vision of rebuilding Gaza and transforming it into a thriving coastal state, a kind of larger Miami, is welcome and pragmatic rather than theoretical and high-flown statements. In this sense, the vision also has a chance of being realized if a “deal” can be agreed with the parties involved.
Sources include BBC , CNN and my previous articles:
Road-map to 2-State solution.Sinai Option again,
Palestinians Put Jordanian Option on the Table
Saudien Minasta malli gazalaisten leirille
A Day After the Gaza War -Plan by Ariel Rusila
The article first appeared in the Finnish online publication Ariel-Israelista Suomeksi
