Ariel Rusila's Conflicts [Ex-BalkanPerspective]

In Assad’s flag, the red represents the blood shed in the Syrian revolution. White is for peace. Black symbolizes Arab oppression. The green stars in the middle represent Syria and Egypt – the two founders of the United Arab Republic (1958-1961).  In the opposition groups’ flag, the red has been replaced by green, and the three red stars represent Syria’s three main regions: Aleppo, Damascus and Deir el-Zor. The flag originally flew during the country’s struggle for independence from France. In Syria, an operation launched by rebels just two weeks ago quickly achieved its first goal – the capture of Syria’s second city, Aleppo. From there, a little over a week later, the rebel alliance reached Damascus and ended the half-century-long rule of the al-Assad family on Sunday, December 8, 2024. How the blitzkrieg succeeded. Al-Assad’s ouster came at a time when his allies were unable to muster the decisive defenses that had sustained him for years. Weakened by Israeli strikes, Iranian- ...

Based on current information, I assess – or speculate – on the following scenario as the most likely for developments in Syria: In a short time frame of perhaps a few months, the vast majority of Syrians will perceive the fall of al-Assad as positive, and this will be directed at its main implementer, the HTS movement. The movement’s leader, Mohammed al-Golani, has also presented a relatively modern and permissive image of himself, which is supported by his years of activity in Idlib. The designation of HTS as a terrorist organization may change as its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has made great efforts over the past decade to distance himself from al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. The Taliban and HTS insurgents share some ideological similarities with Islamist movements, but their connections are limited. The two groups operate in separate geopolitical contexts: the Taliban focuses on Afghanistan, while HTS is a Syrian insurgent. HTS focuses on local, limited operations, in cont...