November 7, 2024
On July 18, 2024, in my article about alternative scenarios of the Gaza war, I presented my assessment that Donald Trump will most likely return to the presidency of the United States, who will confirm the continuity of his pro-Israel line during his presidency and maybe even after that, with VP J.D. Vance.
Donald Trump’s second presidential term means a new, better time in relations between the USA and Israel compared to Biden’s, and especially new stabilizing measures in the Middle East more broadly. Trump, his transition process team and his assistants are probably already looking for a new US foreign policy direction, which includes updated visions for solutions and new strategies to achieve them. At the same time, other parties involved, especially Israel, are preparing to take advantage of this – ‘Trumportunity’.
In my mentioned article, I assumed the so-called The military-civilian options will continue at the current low intensity for at least the current year. This option is currently being implemented by the current government. In this option, Israel continues to beat Hamas both militarily and administratively, so that it is weakened, local Palestinian elements can replace it on the ground, with regional and international support. This alternative provides a good answer to the core aspects of fighting Hamas however without providing a solution to the release of abductees and the war in the north.
When Hamas and its facilities – the military power tunnel network – are at least most part destroyed, it is time to return to Trump’s peace plan, which as pragmatic and, for example, with regard to its economic package, more emphatically than any proposal made after that. And that plan also includes the realization of the vision of the Palestinian state that I consider important, i.e. the “Two-state model”.
In my opinion, Trump’s plan forms an excellent basis for ending the war in Gaza and achieving peace in the wider Middle East. The large-scale terrorist attack by Hamas on 7/10 has reduced enthusiasm both in Israel and among the Palestinians for the Two-State solution, which has been standing still for more than two decades. I think the Trump’s deal presents a realistic road map to achieve it. In the model, the Palestinian state is naturally not born immediately, but as the result of years of construction work, where the development of state structures and civil society is supported with a large international economic package and detailed projects.
Naturally, the plan must be updated with regard to, for example, borders and the reconstruction of Gaza. Of wider importance is the fact that the plan extends beyond the states of Israel and Palestine, because Israel’s peace treaty partners, Egypt and Jordan, Abraham treaty partners especially from the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia are important participants.
The deal of the century, or Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People. (181 pages) can be read from the White House link https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/peacetoprosperity/
The article first appeared in the Finnish online publication Ariel-Israelista Suomeksi
