Ariel Rusila's Conflicts [Ex-BalkanPerspective]

In Assad’s flag, the red represents the blood shed in the Syrian revolution. White is for peace. Black symbolizes Arab oppression. The green stars in the middle represent Syria and Egypt – the two founders of the United Arab Republic (1958-1961).  In the opposition groups’ flag, the red has been replaced by green, and the three red stars represent Syria’s three main regions: Aleppo, Damascus and Deir el-Zor. The flag originally flew during the country’s struggle for independence from France. In Syria, an operation launched by rebels just two weeks ago quickly achieved its first goal – the capture of Syria’s second city, Aleppo. From there, a little over a week later, the rebel alliance reached Damascus and ended the half-century-long rule of the al-Assad family on Sunday, December 8, 2024. How the blitzkrieg succeeded. Al-Assad’s ouster came at a time when his allies were unable to muster the decisive defenses that had sustained him for years. Weakened by Israeli strikes, Iranian- ...

Based on current information, I assess – or speculate – on the following scenario as the most likely for developments in Syria: In a short time frame of perhaps a few months, the vast majority of Syrians will perceive the fall of al-Assad as positive, and this will be directed at its main implementer, the HTS movement. The movement’s leader, Mohammed al-Golani, has also presented a relatively modern and permissive image of himself, which is supported by his years of activity in Idlib. The designation of HTS as a terrorist organization may change as its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has made great efforts over the past decade to distance himself from al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. The Taliban and HTS insurgents share some ideological similarities with Islamist movements, but their connections are limited. The two groups operate in separate geopolitical contexts: the Taliban focuses on Afghanistan, while HTS is a Syrian insurgent. HTS focuses on local, limited operations, in cont...

November 7, 2024 On July 18, 2024, in my  article  about alternative scenarios of the Gaza war, I presented my assessment that Donald Trump will most likely return to the presidency of the United States, who will confirm the continuity of his pro-Israel line during his presidency and maybe even after that, with VP J.D. Vance. Donald Trump’s second presidential term means a new, better time in relations between the USA and Israel compared to Biden’s, and especially new stabilizing measures in the Middle East more broadly. Trump, his transition process team and his assistants are probably already looking for a new US foreign policy direction, which includes updated visions for solutions and new strategies to achieve them. At the same time, other parties involved, especially Israel, are preparing to take advantage of this – ‘Trumportunity’. In my mentioned article, I assumed the so-called The military-civilian options will continue at the current low intensity for at least the cu...

On September 23, 2024, the IDF announced that it had launched the anticipated Northern Arrows operation against Hezbollah, as a follow-up to the previous Iron of Swords operation focused on destroying Hamas. Hezbollah had already started limited rocket, drone and missile support for Hamas on October 8, 2023, but the IDF responded with a barrage of missiles and limited airstrikes. Israel has killed some 1000 Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon in the past week and forced more than a million people to flee from Hezbollah strongholds. The IDF’s primary objective is to destroy Hezbollah’s military infrastructure near the Israeli border, especially in a place like Metula, where Hezbollah had a direct line of fire to target civilian homes due to topographical advantage. Israeli airstrikes have already killed two followers of the slain Hezbollah leader as Israel expanded its ground offensive against the Iran-backed group with the Fourth Army Division entering into southern Lebanon. Hezbollah Hezb...

September 20, 2024 “The most significant pre-emptive strike in modern history, similar to Israel’s attack on the Egyptian Air Force before the Six-Day War.”( Faisal al-Qassem, Al Jazeera) At least 32 people were killed and over 3,000 others were wounded after hundreds of pagers and walkie-talkies used by the terrorist group Hezbollah were detonated almost simultaneously in an attack in Lebanon and Syria on Sept. 17.-18 . The death toll may still rise, as around 300 patients are in critical condition, with some suffering from facial injuries and brain bleeding. Screenshot One theory presented on Facebook,  credit: Member: 71 Most of the injuries are said to have been to the face and hands, and the pagers are said to beep moments before the explosion to encourage the wearers to grab and hold them. Both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have blamed Israel for the explosions. The Israeli government has not commented on the case. Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was also...

ISRAELI so-called settlements in West Bank – Judea and Samaria – are a complex issue. As a rule the news and newscasts claim that Israeli construction activities beyond 1967 line will destroy the Two-State idea.  During last five decades there has been a continuous flow of statements from sc. international community that West Bank settlements are against sc. International Law. But besides statements there is actually one trial – which escaped the media’s awareness – and which ruled the opposite: the 3 rd   Chamber of the Court of Appeal of Versailles declared in 2013 that Israel is the legal occupant of Judea and Samaria.   New level of West Bank construction World Israel News  reports  that Israel announced on Tuesday 31 st  Jan. 2017 the construction of 3,000 housing units in Judea and Samaria. This announcement, made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Avigdor Liberman, follows last week’s statement regarding the  ...

July 27, 2024 While Prime Minister Netanyahu was giving his speech in the US Congress, US flags and pictures of the Prime Minister were burned outside. Maybe not all the protesters there know what the war in Gaza is like, so here is a small picture/video compilation from the last few days. The excerpt also helps to explain the difficulty and slowness of the war from an Israeli point of view: Due to significant terrorist activity and rocket fire directed from the eastern part of the Gaza Humanitarian Area (al-Mawasi) towards the State of Israel, staying in this area has become dangerous. Accordingly, the humanitarian area is currently being adjusted. Due to significant terrorist activity and rocket fire toward the State of Israel from the eastern part of the Humanitarian Area in Gaza, remaining in this area has become dangerous. Accordingly, at this time, the Humanitarian Area will be adjusted. The adjustment is being carried…  pic.twitter.com/bk5GGNXn6M — Israel Defense Forces (@ID...