Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Aspects of al-Assad’s Quick Overthrowe in Syria


flagS

In Assad’s flag, the red represents the blood shed in the Syrian revolution. White is for peace. Black symbolizes Arab oppression. The green stars in the middle represent Syria and Egypt – the two founders of the United Arab Republic (1958-1961). In the opposition groups’ flag, the red has been replaced by green, and the three red stars represent Syria’s three main regions: Aleppo, Damascus and Deir el-Zor. The flag originally flew during the country’s struggle for independence from France.

In Syria, an operation launched by rebels just two weeks ago quickly achieved its first goal – the capture of Syria’s second city, Aleppo. From there, a little over a week later, the rebel alliance reached Damascus and ended the half-century-long rule of the al-Assad family on Sunday, December 8, 2024. How the blitzkrieg succeeded.

Al-Assad’s ouster came at a time when his allies were unable to muster the decisive defenses that had sustained him for years. Weakened by Israeli strikes, Iranian- and Hezbollah-backed forces were unable to build a proper ground defense, and although Russian fighter jets attacked the militants early in their campaign, Moscow’s military support for the rebels – already strained by the war in Ukraine – evaporated as the opposition’s advance accelerated.

In November and December 2024, several Israeli airstrikes targeted Syrian weapons depots, significantly altering the military dynamics in the region. Before the rebel offensive, the strikes were aimed at denying Hezbollah advanced weapons and dismantling possible chemical weapons facilities. An intensified air campaign followed the collapse of the Assad regime, and the US also carried out similar strikes on ISIS’s expanded territory.

Below is a timeline of the change of power compiled by Reuters:

In addition to the decline in external support for al-Assad’s army, internal reasons for the rebels’ success, including morale, can also be found, such as:

  • Simultaneous attacks by the rebels on multiple fronts, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed groups.
  • More than a decade of war has caused physical and mental fatigue among soldiers; years of war, increasing casualties and the loss of key positions have weakened soldiers’ morale.
  • Corruption and poor strategic decisions have undermined trust in the military hierarchy.
  • Syria’s collapsing economy has made it challenging to procure supplies, pay soldiers or maintain operations.
  • Strategic isolation: The rebels gained a strategic advantage by cutting off the government’s supply lines, especially in critical areas such as Aleppo and Homs, and thus the connection between the coast and Damascus.

The map below shows the situation on December 9, 2024:

Source: Reuters, among othersConflicts by Ariel Rusila


The article first appeared in the Finnish online publication Ariel-Israelista Suomeksi

Monday, December 9, 2024

Syria Scenario


Based on current information, I assess – or speculate – on the following scenario as the most likely for developments in Syria:

  • In a short time frame of perhaps a few months, the vast majority of Syrians will perceive the fall of al-Assad as positive, and this will be directed at its main implementer, the HTS movement. The movement’s leader, Mohammed al-Golani, has also presented a relatively modern and permissive image of himself, which is supported by his years of activity in Idlib.
  • The designation of HTS as a terrorist organization may change as its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has made great efforts over the past decade to distance himself from al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. The Taliban and HTS insurgents share some ideological similarities with Islamist movements, but their connections are limited. The two groups operate in separate geopolitical contexts: the Taliban focuses on Afghanistan, while HTS is a Syrian insurgent. HTS focuses on local, limited operations, in contrast to ISIS, which seeks a global caliphate. However, HTS could Talibanize Syria by initially presenting a relatively liberal image of itself, but over time, transforming the territory it controls into a theocracy where women and minorities are marginalized.
  • After the “honeymoon months”, fundamental ethnic, cultural and religious differences surface, the largest of which are the rebels pushing for an Islamist republic and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a left-wing nationalist force governing northeastern Syria. The SDF sees its mission as fighting to create a secular, democratic and federalized Syria. For Turkey, which supports HTS or its Idlib supporters, a federalist or even independent Kurdistan is not possible and the situation is looking in its direction, allowing an attack on the Syrian Kurdish Rojava, either by Turkey’s own actions or with the support of jihadist movements.
  • Economic conflicts of interest will keep Syria unstable for a long time. Which groups will get control of the most modern missiles and chemical weapons, as well as the drug trade, which has been Syria’s most significant and profitable export product.

The article first appeared in the Finnish online publication Ariel-Israelista Suomeksi

Thursday, November 7, 2024

Trumportunity For the Middle East


November 7, 2024

On July 18, 2024, in my article about alternative scenarios of the Gaza war, I presented my assessment that Donald Trump will most likely return to the presidency of the United States, who will confirm the continuity of his pro-Israel line during his presidency and maybe even after that, with VP J.D. Vance.

Donald Trump’s second presidential term means a new, better time in relations between the USA and Israel compared to Biden’s, and especially new stabilizing measures in the Middle East more broadly. Trump, his transition process team and his assistants are probably already looking for a new US foreign policy direction, which includes updated visions for solutions and new strategies to achieve them. At the same time, other parties involved, especially Israel, are preparing to take advantage of this – ‘Trumportunity’.

In my mentioned article, I assumed the so-called The military-civilian options will continue at the current low intensity for at least the current year. This option is currently being implemented by the current government. In this option, Israel continues to beat Hamas both militarily and administratively, so that it is weakened, local Palestinian elements can replace it on the ground, with regional and international support. This alternative provides a good answer to the core aspects of fighting Hamas however without providing a solution to the release of abductees and the war in the north.

When Hamas and its facilities – the military power tunnel network – are at least most part destroyed, it is time to return to Trump’s peace plan, which as pragmatic and, for example, with regard to its economic package, more emphatically than any proposal made after that. And that plan also includes the realization of the vision of the Palestinian state that I consider important, i.e. the “Two-state model”.

In my opinion, Trump’s plan forms an excellent basis for ending the war in Gaza and achieving peace in the wider Middle East. The large-scale terrorist attack by Hamas on 7/10 has reduced enthusiasm both in Israel and among the Palestinians for the Two-State solution, which has been standing still for more than two decades. I think the Trump’s deal presents a realistic road map to achieve it. In the model, the Palestinian state is naturally not born immediately, but as the result of years of construction work, where the development of state structures and civil society is supported with a large international economic package and detailed projects.

Naturally, the plan must be updated with regard to, for example, borders and the reconstruction of Gaza. Of wider importance is the fact that the plan extends beyond the states of Israel and Palestine, because Israel’s peace treaty partners, Egypt and Jordan, Abraham treaty partners especially from the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia are important participants.

The deal of the century, or Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People. (181 pages) can be read from the White House link https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/peacetoprosperity/


The article first appeared in the Finnish online publication Ariel-Israelista Suomeksi

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Hezbollah, Iran and a Possible Ceasefire

On September 23, 2024, the IDF announced that it had launched the anticipated Northern Arrows operation against Hezbollah, as a follow-up to the previous Iron of Swords operation focused on destroying Hamas. Hezbollah had already started limited rocket, drone and missile support for Hamas on October 8, 2023, but the IDF responded with a barrage of missiles and limited airstrikes.

Israel has killed some 1000 Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon in the past week and forced more than a million people to flee from Hezbollah strongholds. The IDF’s primary objective is to destroy Hezbollah’s military infrastructure near the Israeli border, especially in a place like Metula, where Hezbollah had a direct line of fire to target civilian homes due to topographical advantage.

Israeli airstrikes have already killed two followers of the slain Hezbollah leader as Israel expanded its ground offensive against the Iran-backed group with the Fourth Army Division entering into southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah

Hezbollah (“Party of Allah”) is the most armed non-state actor in the world and was founded in Lebanon in 1982 with the help of Iran’s IRGC. Hezbollah is believed to have at least 45,000 fighters, about 5,000 having completed advanced training in Iran and about 20,000 in training reserve units. It also possesses an estimated 130,000 – 200,000 missiles corresponding to about 1,500 precision guided missiles and thousands of UAVs (drones). Hezbollah has built a $1 billion-a-year public network. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (US) estimates that Hezbollah received yearly 700 million dollars from Iran (that is, about seven times more than Hamas on average).

A 130-page report prepared by more than 100 high-ranking military and government officials as part of the Reichman University’s Anti-Terrorist Narrative Institute, made before 7/10/23, estimated that Israel’s war with Hezbollah will escalate with a massive and destructive Hezbollah rocket attack on all of Israel at a rate of 2,500 to 3,000 launches per day. The rate of fire challenges Israeli defense capacity like never before. With stocks of Iron Dome fighters and David’s Sling missiles depleted from the few day’s fighting, Israel is exposed to thousands of rockets and missiles without an effective active defense.

A small sample of findings from the future security zone, IDF video: https://t.co/3Kt7m72Y16

The IDF appears to be making progress in destroying Hezbollah’s military capacity and ability to threaten Israel. The IDF has struck Lebanon from the air, hitting 4,900 targets and around 6,000 ground targets since the start of the war. More than 800 terrorists, including about 90 commanders, have been eliminated. It has just been a year since Hezbollah attacked northern Israel with more than 12,000 missiles and rockets.

The head of the IDF’s Northern Command has told local northern community leaders that they could start planning for the return of their residents after the Sukkot holiday at the end of the month.

Iran

“Our attack will be lethal, precise and mainly surprising. They won’t understand what happened and how it happened; they’ll see the results.” (Defence Minister Gallant)

According to various intelligence reports, after the ground attack, Iran has continued to support Hezbollah in three ways:

  • It has sent military advisers to help restore command structures after Israel successfully killed many of Hezbollah’s middle and senior commanders.
  • Iran has stepped up its efforts to move weapons both from its Syrian stockpile and through Iraq and
  • Assist in conducting research to understand how the Israelis were able to penetrate the organization and obtain such valuable intelligence on commanders and prevent further leaks

To produce a nuclear weapon, Iran must enrich large amounts of uranium to weapons grade (90%), create the chain reaction necessary to detonate the bomb, and a delivery system such as placing the warhead on the missile.

Along with Britain and the rest of Europe, Iran has also organized and financed terrorism around the world, in addition to supporting Russia’s attack in Ukraine. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy has published a recent report on the subject: list of Iranian attacks around the world.

Negotiations between Israel and the United States continue over a response to Iran’s firing of 181 ballistic missiles into Israel last week. There are many attack options: from military installations to government symbols, energy infrastructure and Iran’s nuclear program.

While the Israeli government may well decide its response independently, Israel is dependent on the US for many issues, including its superior intelligence (via satellites), control of the airspace between Israel and Iran, coordination with other allies, including the UK military. with Arab regional partners and maintenance of Israeli munitions, including anti-missile equipment. The United States has a negative view of an attack against Iran’s nuclear program or oil infrastructure.

The attack and its contents have already been decided, and Defense Minister Gallant has described it as “deadly, accurate and mainly surprising. They don’t understand what happened and how it happened; they see the results.”

The possibility of a truce

Hezbollah has already suffered serious damage in the current phase of the war, not only physically as its missile capacity decreases, but also organizationally as Israel has eliminated main part the chain of command and decision-making levels of Hezbollah. This is illustrated by the fact that during the entire war, Hezbollah has not been able to carry out its actions presented in the threat scenario, such as a 7/10 ground attack on Israel by its special forces and a massive centralized rocket, drone and missile strike that cripples Israel’s air defense; instead of the dreaded daily dose of 3,500, Hezbollah has only been able to launch a maximum of three hundred per day.

Israel needs a truce on terms suitable to it, so that the evacuated residents of its northern border can finally return to their homes. Operating in the middle of a civilian settlement in the Hezbollah support area between the security zone and Beirut would cause significant problems for Israel’s ground operation, although the destruction to Hezbollah and through it also to Lebanon would be as devastating as Gaza. The continuation of the operation is also expensive, as one anti-ballistic missile Arrow missile costs $3 million, a David Sling costs just under $800,000 and an Iron Dome approximately $50,000 each, and Hezbollah probably still has an arsenal of just under 100,000 rockets, drones and missiles.

The terms of the Hezbollah/Lebanon and Israel truce itself do not have to be very complicated, at a minimum a truce could be made by implementing the resolution adopted by the UN – UNSC resolution 1701 (2006) –  in which the Lebanese Army (LAF) removes Hezbollah’s armaments from the Litani River and the border ( Blue Line) with the support of UN UNIFIL forces. The Israeli army is doing most of the cleaning work and UNIFIL is already there to continue it.

The Northern Arrows operation that has begun has already reversed the roles of the parties: Earlier in the Gaza war, Hamas encouraged the Iranians to join the attack on Israel, and Hezbollah made a cease-fire in Gaza a condition for ending its offensive. Now Israel has reversed the equation and Hezbollah has expressed that they are ready for a truce despite the situation in Gaza and at the same time Iran has been expressed that in order to save itself and what is left of Hezbollah, they must pressure Hamas to release the hostages and contain Hezbollah.

In my opinion a truce in the near future would now be in the interest of all parties. Israel now has to tie up its reserves on seven fronts that hinder the return to normal life and economic and political development. Hizbullah (Shia) retains the remnants of its power, but the other two parties to the power-sharing agreement (Christians and Sunni Muslims) rise to a more prominent position, as does the Lebanese army. Iran will avoid the complete destruction of its best trump card and the international community can try to negotiate an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and help in any negotiations between the parties.

Sources include:  BICOM , BICOM , IDF , INSS 


This article first appeared in Finnish webpublication :  Ariel-Israelista suomeksi  

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Mossad blew up Hezbollah’s communication devices


September 20, 2024

“The most significant pre-emptive strike in modern history, similar to Israel’s attack on the Egyptian Air Force before the Six-Day War.”(Faisal al-Qassem, Al Jazeera)

At least 32 people were killed and over 3,000 others were wounded after hundreds of pagers and walkie-talkies used by the terrorist group Hezbollah were detonated almost simultaneously in an attack in Lebanon and Syria on Sept. 17.-18 . The death toll may still rise, as around 300 patients are in critical condition, with some suffering from facial injuries and brain bleeding.

Screenshot

One theory presented on Facebook, credit: Member: 71

Most of the injuries are said to have been to the face and hands, and the pagers are said to beep moments before the explosion to encourage the wearers to grab and hold them. Both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have blamed Israel for the explosions. The Israeli government has not commented on the case. Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was also injured when his pager exploded and lost an eye.

According to a senior Lebanese security source, Mossad planted the explosives in 5,000 pagers that were brought into Lebanon months ago. Taiwan’s Gold Apollo said Wednesday that it authorized its brand on the pagers that exploded in Lebanon and Syria, but that another Budapest-based company manufactured them. According to a statement released by Gold Apollo on Wednesday, the AR-924 search devices used by Hezbollah militants were manufactured by BAC Consulting KFT, based in the Hungarian capital, it is assumed that company mentioned was owned by Mossad and devices were manufactured in an other cover firm in Bulgaria.

One theory is that about 9 grams of a liquid explosive, nitroparaffin, had been placed in the search devices. which was placed in such a way that the shrapnel effect caused by the explosive – from the parts of the pager itself – would be as damaging as possible.

According to unconfirmed reports, Israel had planned to use explosive seeker devices as the opening strike of a planned ground attack with the terrorist group to damage the logistics/chain of command. The attack was brought forward because it was suspected that the project would be revealed in the next few days. Hezbollah uses a network of pagers to summon a large number of them quickly at the push of a button. The network was believed to have many advantages – pagers are small and considered relatively secure in terms of data security, especially since they are not dependent on mobile phone networks.

Possibly Mossad’s Attack on Hezbollah is particularly successful because of its multiple effects: In addition to being physical in terms of injured and killed operatives, it is also intelligence-operational, in terms of how the organization managed to infiltrate Hezbollah’s operations and equipment supply chain, and also psychological, in terms of counter-intelligence against Hezbollah – and the failure of security services to the spread of humiliation on social media.

In a second wave of wireless communications device explosions in Lebanon, a day after the first wave in which pagers used by Hezbollah were simultaneously detonated. This time, radio phones used by the Radwa special forces of the armed Hezbollah organization exploded in the southern suburbs of the capital Beirut, the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon.

The attacks came as Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a “new phase in the war” and as an Israeli army division was moved north of Gaza for a long-prepared ground operation.

The detonated walkie-talkies are reportedly IC-V82 radios manufactured by the Japanese company ICOM. However, the IC-V82 is a discontinued model, and ICOM has issued a warning about detecting fakes. In the warning leaflet, the company warned that these products have not been manufactured for a long time and said that there is a risk of battery explosion in these fake models.

Hezbollah bought the walkie-talkies five months ago – around the same time as the pagers. Israel’s intelligence services had earned thousands of walkie-talkies before supplying them to Hezbollah as part of the group’s wartime emergency communications system.

The target of the radiotelephone attack was Hezbollah’s elite unit Radwan. Radwan carries out special operations for Hezbollah and its strength is about 2,500 fighters. The unit’s primary mission is to infiltrate Israeli territory and capture civilian communities in the Galilee region. Radwa’s commandos operate in small groups and, according to Hezbollah, carry out ambushes, assassinations or operations that require infiltration deep into Israel. Radwan uses highly mobile units as means of transportation: motorcycles, ATVs and light all-terrain vehicles equipped with Russian-made Kornet ATGMs (anti-tank missiles).

Despite UN Resolution 1701, which calls for Hezbollah to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River, Radwan forces are still stationed on the Blue Line – a border monitored by UN peacekeepers – conducting surveillance and intelligence gathering in northern Israel.

According to Israeli reports, Jerusalem believes the death toll in both attacks is higher than reported. Crucially, the explosions caused “significant damage” to Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit, as most of its leadership is out of action.  

According to an unconfirmed internal document leaked from Hezbollah’s military intelligence, Hezbollah suffered the following losses in the explosions of the communication devices (HOX: there is there is no guarantee about authentcity):

  • 879 people killed in explosions so far
  • Of the dead, 131 were Iranians and 79 were Yemenis, the rest were Lebanese
  • 291 of the dead were officers
  • In the explosions, 491 were completely blinded and 602 were seriously injured
  • 905 completely lost their genitalia and 1735 suffered serious damage (the search device was generally kept in a belt pouch.

Following picture from IDF shows serious losses in Hezbollah senior leaderchip:

After the blasts on the communication devices, Hezbollah now has thousands of disabled leaders and fighters and hospitals are full of wounded. Hezbollah’s ability to wage war has also decreased due to the fact that it cannot rely on its means of communication. Israel now has a good opportunity to clear Hizbullah from the security zone being formed in Lebanon between the Litani River and the border. In the future, the zone in question can be controlled by the forces of the Lebanese army with the support of the UN.

Sources include  TimesOfIsrael , JerusalemPost , BICOM , NewArab


The article first appeared in the online publication Ariel-Israelista Suomeksi

Forgotten Court Rule: Israel Is The Legal Occupant Of Judea And Samaria


usrael-palestine conflictISRAELI so-called settlements in West Bank – Judea and Samaria – are a complex issue. As a rule the news and newscasts claim that Israeli construction activities beyond 1967 line will destroy the Two-State idea. During last five decades there has been a continuous flow of statements from sc. international community that West Bank settlements are against sc. International Law.

But besides statements there is actually one trial – which escaped the media’s awareness – and which ruled the opposite: the 3rd  Chamber of the Court of Appeal of Versailles declared in 2013 that Israel is the legal occupant of Judea and Samaria.

 

New level of West Bank construction

World Israel News reports that Israel announced on Tuesday 31st Jan. 2017 the construction of 3,000 housing units in Judea and Samaria. This announcement, made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Avigdor Liberman, follows last week’s statement regarding the construction of 2,500 housing units in various locations in Judea and Samaria and the municipality of Jerusalem’s approval of the construction of 566 new homes in the city. The back-to-back announcements of a total of 6,000 new housing units in Judea and Samaria within a single week is almost unprecedented. The statement comes as 42 Israeli families in the community of Amona in Samaria are being removed from their homes because it was allegedly built on privately-owned Palestinian land.

For example the New York Times was using distorted facts on issue as follows: Israel approved 3,000 more housing units in the occupied West Bank late Tuesday, the largest number in a wave of new construction plans that defy the international community and that open a forceful phase in the country’s expansion into land the Palestinians claim for a future state. However to build housing units both within existing settlements and in existing Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem, is not an expansion as the area of land for settlements is not expanding even if the number of houses and Jews living in them is increasing.

On 6th Feb. 2017 the Israeli Knesset passed the controversial Regulation Law by 60 votes to 52. The Regulation Law retroactively gives residents of up to 4,000 housing units in West Bank settlements the right to live in their homes which were built – some accidentally – on private Palestinian land, in return providing the landowner with an annual usage payment of 125 per cent of the land’s rental value. However the Law might be overturned by the Supreme Court. (Source: BICOM , more in BICOM briefing: Download PDF)

 

Israel as legal occupant of the West Bank

Israel’s claim in West bank is based e.g. on the following earlier acts of International Law: The Jan Smuts Resolution of January 30, 1919, Article 22 of the Covenant of the League of Nations, including the Treaty of Versailles of June 28, 1919, The legal title of the Jewish People to the mandated territory of Palestine in all of its historical parts was first recognized on April 24, 1920 when the post-World War I Allied Supreme Council (Britain, France, Italy and Japan), meeting in San Remo, Italy, converted the 1917 ‘Balfour Declaration’ into a binding legal document. This was confirmed by the 1920 Treaty of Sevres and Lausanne. All these recognized the historical connection of the Jewish People with the Land of Israel.

Sure local Arabs have also historical connections between Mediterranean and Jordan river but they have already received their lands under the Mandate system as (Trans-)Jordania was separated from Palestine during the British Mandate. So Jordan is the Arab Muslim state (kingdom) on 77% of old Palestine made legal 1946-League of Nations. They wanted more and made a war and annexed West bank 1950 which then was reclaimed by Israel 1967. According negotiated Oslo agreements (1995) for administration of West bank there are three areas C=Israel state, B=shared by Israel and Palestinian authority (PA) and A=PLO/PA/Fatah but Jerusalem is not Jordans or anyone elses.

Israel made peace treaty with Jordan – occupant of the West Bank from 1948 to 1967 – in 1994 and Jordan does not have any territorial claims in West Bank.

A trial which escaped the media’s awareness

logo3-dreuzIn a historical trial, the 3rd Chamber of the Court of Appeal of Versailles declared in 2013 that Israel is the legal occupant of Judea and Samaria. As this groundbreaking ruling escaped the media’s awareness, a pro Israel activist – Jean-Patrick Grumberg – has worked to bring this “old news” to light. “I decided to put to work my years of Law Studies in France, and I meticulously analyzed the Court ruling,” Jean-Patrick Grumberg wrote and continued

To make sure I did not overestimate my legal abilities and that I wasn’t over optimistic – as usual-, I submitted my analysis and the Court papers to one of the most prominent French lawyer, Gilles-William Goldnadel, President of Lawyers without borders, to receive his legal opinion. He indeed validated my finding. Then I decided to translate it to English, and it will soon be submitted to Benjamin Netanyahu thru a mutual friend.

The main source of following description is the article in Dreuz.info –  Israël est l’occupant légal de la Cisjordanie, dit la Cour d’appel de Versailles , Publié par Jean-Patrick Grumberg le 25 décembre 2016 – with help of the report by United with Israel about the case.

The story goes back to the ’90s, when Israel began work for for the construction of the Jerusalem light rail. The tender was won by French companies Veolia and Alstom. The light rail was completed in 2011, and it crosses Jerusalem all the way through the city. Following this, the PLO/ the Palestinian Authority and Association France Palestine Solidarité (AFPS), filed a complaint with the Tribunal de Grande Instance of Versailles France, against Alstom and Veolia, because according to PLO, the construction of the tram was illegal since the United Nations (UN0, the European Union (EU) and other governments consider Israel’s presence there illegal. The Court of Appeal of Versailles ruled that Israel’s presence in Judea and Samaria is unequivocally legal under international law, dismissing a suit brought by the Palestinian Authority (PA) against Jerusalem’s light rail built by French companies Alstom and Veolia. To rule on the suit, the Court of Appeals had to determine the legal rights of Palestinians and Israelis in the region. Their conclusion was that the Palestinians have no right – in the international legal sense – to the region, unlike Israel, who is legitimately entitled to all land beyond the 67 line.

british-mandate-for-palestine-1921

It is said that the court decision is only marginally significant for a debate about the legality of Israel’s actions in the West Bank and East Jerusalem as it’s only talking about transport infrastructure, not e.g. about settlements. However in trial the PLO, explaining that the occupation is illegal, claimed that Israel is violating: Articles 49-6 and 53 of the Geneva Convention, Articles 23, 27 and 46 of the Regulations annexed to the Fourth Hague Convention of 1907, Article 4 of the Hague Convention of 14 May 1954. Article 27 of the Hague Regulations of 1907, Article 5 of the Convention IX of the 1907 Hague. and Article 53 of Additional Protocol 1 to the Geneva Conventions.

So in order to rule whether the light rail’s construction was legal or not, the court had to review the texts of international law and examine international treaties in order to establish the respective legal rights of the Palestinians and the Israelis.

The Versailles Court of Appeal rejected all the Palestinian arguments. Referring to the texts on which the PLO claim is based, the Court of Appeal considers that Israel is entitled to ensure order and public life in the region, and therefore Israel has the right to build a light rail, infrastructure and dwellings. All the international instruments put forward by the PLO were acts signed between states, and the obligations or prohibitions contained therein are relevant to states. Neither the PA nor the PLO are states, and therefore, none of these legal documents apply to them.

The Court of Appeal therefore sentenced the PLO and Association France Palestine Solidarité (AFPS), who was co-appellant, to pay 30,000 euros ($32,000) to Alstom, 30,000 euros to Alstom Transport and 30,000 euros to Veolia Transport. Neither the PLO nor the Palestinian Authority nor the AFPS appealed to the Supreme Court, and therefore the judgment became final. This is the first time that a Court has legally destroyed all Palestinian legal claim that Israel’s occupation is illegal.

napoleon


Article first appeared in Conflicts By Ari Rusila – site

Saturday, July 27, 2024

Specific features of the war in Gaza

July 27, 2024

While Prime Minister Netanyahu was giving his speech in the US Congress, US flags and pictures of the Prime Minister were burned outside. Maybe not all the protesters there know what the war in Gaza is like, so here is a small picture/video compilation from the last few days. The excerpt also helps to explain the difficulty and slowness of the war from an Israeli point of view:

Due to significant terrorist activity and rocket fire directed from the eastern part of the Gaza Humanitarian Area (al-Mawasi) towards the State of Israel, staying in this area has become dangerous. Accordingly, the humanitarian area is currently being adjusted.

In Gaza City, weapons can be found in ordinary apartment buildings.

As well as other ordinary apartments, the one below from Gaza City:

In Khan Yunis, Hamas fired rockets from a sheltered area. A failed launch landed near an UNRWA school, killing two civilians and injuring many; the wounded were taken to the Dier al Balah field hospital, coordinated by the IDF and the WHO.

In Rafah, Hamas terrorists are targeting the humanitarian route, and the schoolyard also had a tunnel entrance again.

In Rafah, a tunnel opening and weapons were found in the children’s bedroom.

The video may be visible from the following link: https://x.com/IDF/status/1816135128701075719 , as “graphic content”.


World Food Program aid packages on sale even though the cover says “Not for Sale”

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https://x.com/Shunyaa00/status/1815400706247197114

In Tulkarm (Länsiranta), a medical person carries an AK-47 instead of a first aid kit. The situation in Gaza is familiar, as ambulances are often used there for military transport.

The IDF was able to return the bodies of five kidnapped Israelis from Gaza. Kindergarten teacher Maya Goren was murdered while in captivity, while four soldiers were killed on 7/10 and their bodies transported to Gaza.

The bodies of the five hostages were recovered in southern Gaza. Clockwise from top left: Tomer Ahimas, Ravid Katz, Oren Goldin, Maya Goren and Kiril Brodski.


Congress speech

Prime Minister Netanyahu had brought a few heroes of the Gaza war as guests in his congressional speech to show the versatility of the Israeli army. In the picture, on the right, in uniform, is a tank lieutenant who lost his right hand and left eye in the war and returned to the war as the head of a tank company; next to him an immigrant of Ethiopian background who, in the absence of a car, took his gun and ran eight miles to the Gaza border to save civilians 7/10, second from the right a member of the Muslim community of Bedouin background who initially fought off terrorists in the territory of his own kibbutz and then went to do the same in a neighboring kibbutz and the gentleman in civilian clothes on the right lost his right leg in Gaza but is returned to war again.

Also present during the speech was Noa Argamani, who was released alive from the clutches of Hamas in connection with Operation Arnon. All those who participated received a standing ovation from the congress. The Prime Minister’s emotional, powerful congress speech is below in its entirety, the speech lasted about an hour and the introduction of the aforementioned war heroes started at about 12 minutes: