Israel’s 5 Strategy Options Regarding West Bank After Abbas

Israel will have five policy options regarding Judea and Samaria when Mahmoud Abbas departs from his post as leader of the Palestinian Authority and none of these options is ideal. This is the conclusion of analysis by Professor Hillel Frisch, professor of political studies and Middle East studies at Bar-Ilan University, and a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.

Prof. Frisch is trying to craft a coherent Israeli policy toward a post-Abbas Palestinian Authority (PA). The task is challenging as the situation is constantly buffeted by tremors and underground currents. These include a wave of terrorist violence against Israelis, albeit declining; a growing rift within Fatah between Abbas and his detractors that is very much linked to the battle over his succession; and the possibility that linkage between those two developments could degenerate into civil war (another arena in the proxy war waged between Iran and Saudi Arabia and their respective allies).

The five approaches are

• conflict management option,
• creative friction,
• constructive chaos,
• unilateral withdrawal, and
• unilateral annexation.

In every case, however, Israel will have to maintain a military presence in Judea and Samaria.

The article Israel’s Five Policy Options Regarding Judea and Samaria by Prof. Hillel Frisch is BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 336, March 29, 2016 and it can be found as PDF from here ; a resume of it is represented below:


According Prof. Frisch the Conflict Management Option is probably the most feasible, and the unilateral withdrawal option the least and according him the Unilateral withdrawal would in any case probably prove to be domestically impossible. The chaos option is not entirely in Israel’s hands, contingent as it is on developments within the PA.

Unlike in an excellent article by Prof. Frisch I think that unilateral withdrawal is both feasible and doable; its main benefit might be that Israel can deside it individually. Sure this option is promoted by Isaac Herzog, leader of the Zionist Union, but I understand that the proposal has support in addition to center-left also from center and center-right in Israeli’s political sphere. I would like to emphasize also one aspect namely separate truce with Gaza/Hamas and in best case implementation sc Sinai option which could solve refugee question with positive outcome to some of problems in West Bank too.

The components of Two-State solution have been roughly clear last two decades – see ‘Parameters of the Israel-Palestine Conflict’ above – but the final agreement is still missing. The international pressure might lead to talks or negotiations again, with or without outside facilitators, but probably with the same outcome than earlier. So from my perspective unilateral actions are steps forward and in my opinion also to the right direction.

If peace negotiations don’t start, they fail again or regional solutions can’t be realized this time so from my viewpoint Israel could independently implement what I have called a ‘Cold Peace Solution’, a minimal level of peace relations, where Israel would annex main settlements from West-bank inside the security fence and return to negotiations about other than so solved border issue when both parties feel need to make a long term deal. This solution in my opinion is the best way forward and it even might be possible to implement. If unilateral solutions are made in the framework of constructive unilateralism so this approach might be the right roadmap towards more permanent two-state solution.

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More in

• Analysis: Resolving The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict,
• Constructive Unilateralism: Leftist Approach to Israel-Palestine Conflict and
• Herzog’s Plan: Security Barrier Around the Major Settlement Blocs of West Bank

Underground Iron Dome Against Hamas' Terror Tunnels

Israel  has started testing a secret new weapon for defeating the tunnel systems which the Palestinian Hamas and Hizballah are busy digging for surprise attacks  against Israel. Following Operation Protective Edge in the summer of 2014, a  great deal of attention shifted to Israel's need to develop a technological  solution to the underground tunnel problem.

Now, according to Foreign Policy magazine, it  appears Israel has found that solution. Western sources reported on 11^th  March 2016, that the new weapon, dubbed the  “Underground Iron Dome,” can detect a tunnel, then send in a moving missile ton blow it up. The new weapon is not counter measure only against threat from Gaza  and Lebanon but against Iran nukes too.

US intelligence sources disclosed only  that new weapon is equipped with seismic sensors to detect underground  vibrations and map their location before destroying them. Western experts haven been talking for years about a secret Israeli weapon capable of destroyingn Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, which is buried deep inside a mountain not farn from the Shiite shrine city of Qom. They suggested that this hypotheticaln weapon could be slipped through the Fordo facility’s vents, thread its way  through the underground chambers and take down the illicit enrichment facility.  It was discussed again three years ago, when the Israeli Air Force on 23^rd  Aug. 2013 blew up the Popular Palestinian Front-General Command underground  facility at Al-Naama on the South Lebanese coast, 15 km south of Beirut. (Source:  DEBKAfile )

Iran keeps its ballistic missiles in underground bunkers

The new threat to Israel that appeared in the summer of 2014,n Operation Protective Edge was a network of terror tunnels. Now, Israel Hayom reports, Israel has built its own network of defense tunnels along the Gaza border, with the cooperation of the United  States. The US government is set to invest $120 million in developing and manufacturing the "Israeli invention" for detecting and identifying  tunnels, in collaboration with the Ministry of Defense, following Congress'  approval of the budget transfer. Israel is set to invest a similar amount.  For its investment U.S. will receive  prototypes, access to test sites, and rights to any intellectual property.  Military officials estimated the costs of  setting up an advanced tunnel barrier at about 2.8 billion shekels ($710  million).
The goal, U.S. Defense Department spokesman Christopher Sherwood told Foreign Policy, “is to establish  anti-tunnel capabilities to detect, map, and neutralize underground tunnels that threaten the U.S. or Israel…”The US is in need of such a system on its
Mexico border and with the Americans in the picture, there is a chance that the  project here will start to make progress. The injection of American money and  technology will shorten the process and the system will be upgraded, meaning  that it will be deployed more quickly. (Source: Israel Hayom  )

Among the Israeli companies working on the  tunnel-detection project are Elbit Systems and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems,
both of which developed the Iron Dome.

Collapsing  tunnels

According Arutz Sheva  a Hamas “field commander” [Abd al-Salah al-Butnaji  from The Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades,  Hamas’ armed wing]  died 14^th  March 2016 in a “tunnel accident” in Gaza.

A gas pipe running through a tunnel under the Gazan town of Rafah exploded, wounding some 60-70 people, and  killing 2, according to The Jewish Press  based on Egyptian sources.  According to Al Bawab News, some 50 smuggling  tunnels were uncovered due to the explosion. 60 homes in Rafah have been  evacuated due to the explosion.  There’s  no indication at this point as to what caused the gas pipe to leak and explode.

A terror tunnel under the Gazan town of Khan Younis collapsed on 19^th March 2016; three Hamas terrorists  have been wounded and five others are still missing underground.  This is the 10th or 11th terror tunnel to  collapse since December 2015.

(Source: The Jewish Press )

On Egypt-Gaza border the Egyptian military vehicles are transferring Mediterranean Sea water to the Rafah border, to fill a  newly-built crude canal, flooding and destroying the tunnels connecting Egypt and Gaza. While it is generally believed that this year’s unusually heavy rainfall  and flooding by Egyptian army are the main reason for the collapses on  Gaza-Israel border, there is growing speculation that an Israeli secret  anti-tunnel weapon is at work underground.  

Egypt, historically the Palestinians'  major backer, has brokered several truces between Israel and Gaza factions and tried to heal past rifts between rival Palestinian factions.  But Egypt has intensified a blockade of Gaza  by largely sealing the border since 2013, citing precarious security conditions  in the neighboring Sinai Peninsula where Islamist militants have launched many
deadly strikes on Egyptian soldiers. Recently Egypt accused Hamas of  involvement in last year's assassination of Public Prosecutor Hisham Barakat.  (More in Hamas’ Relations With Egypt Worsened )

Robots in anti-tunnel campaign

As part of Israel’s anti-tunnel  campaign the IDF's earlier recruit was a versatile little Foster-Miller military robot Talon 4 which proved he can handle himself  on the battlefields of Iraq and was drafted for use in the dangerous tunnels on  the Gaza Strip border instead of soldiers to reduce risks to troops.

In addition Israel debuted the Micro Tactical Ground Robot (MTGR) built by Roboteam, a locally developed micro robot, to explore the labyrinth of tunnels and concealed shafts  supporting subterranean arms depots, command posts and cross-border attacksn from Gaza. After competing for more than two years with America's leading robot providers, an Israeli newcomer to the industry through its US subsidiary has  snagged a $25 million US Air Force contract to provide its man-portable, stair-climbing, battle-tested system in support of Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) missions. MTGR weighs less than 20 pounds and is built to clear  obstacles, climb 8-inch stairs and maneuver in tight, dangerous terrain. Its five onboard cameras, internal microphone and infrared laser points generate  intelligence and targeting data 360 degrees around the vehicle. (Defense News)

The  bottom line

One reason which angers Palestinians is a sc. siege on Gaza, which prevents the building process of the new homes since last
Gaza conflict in 2014.  As a matter of fact Palestinians should be angry with Hamas for rebuilding the tunnels instead of homes.   In fact, since the cease-fire  between Israel and the militant Islamist group Hamas, more than 3 million tons of construction material have entered Gaza through Israel’s Kerem Shalom border crossing, according to Israeli figures. Big part of construction materials as well of other donations is used for building terror and smuggling tunnels. (More in Instead of Gaza’s Reconstruction Donor Aid Finances Terrorism And Corruption )

Hamas is in its own race against time.  From the organization's perspective, it's already finished its preparations for a military entanglement with Israel and is now grappling with timing. And thisn timing will be greatly affected by the pace of the Israeli project's progress. Hamas is preparing a surprise attack. If they are led to believe for a moment that Israel has a solution that will bring its tunnels out into the open, it  will push them to bring their attack forward. The IDF is already making estimates around possibility that the collision is likely to take place within a few months. A series of gestures and events over the past few weeks attest to the building concern that the next round of fighting between Israel and Hamas will arrive sooner rather than later. It started with reports, specifically in Israel, on the certainty that Hamas' tunnels have already entered Israeli territory.
Both Palestinian Hamas and the pro-Iranian Hizballah are working overtime on tunnels for sneaking terrorists and commando
fighters into Israel to attack IDF posts and civilian locations. During Israel’s last counter-terror operation in the Gaza Strip, Hamas staged a deadly tunnel attack on the Israel side of the border and is planning repeats. Hizballah is training commando units for underground surprise incursions to capture parts of Galilee in northern Israel. Israel still appears unable to completely counter Hamas’s subterranean advantage. And if the development of the Underground Iron Dome is any indication, it could be several years before Israel is able to employ an effective anti-tunnel system.

An injection of US cash into Israel's anti-tunnel technology will speed up its development. But the increased activity on the Israeli side is liable to  provoke Hamas into jumping the gun and launching an early surprise attack.

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Some  related articles:

New Israel Military Strategy

Now Israel Has The Most Advanced Missile Defense System In The World

Gaza Blockade – It’s Egypt not Israel!

 

 

Now Israel Has The Most Advanced Missile Defense System In The World

The massive ‘Juniper Cobra 2016’ exercise, a US-Israel air defense drill, concluded 3^rd March 2016. The drill ended just two days after Israel’s Defense Ministry announced it would be enhancing the capabilities of David’s Sling, a system designed to handle Iranian-grade missiles. The drill is the first of its kind to include David’s Sling, which is expected to come fully online during 2016, and also the first such drill involving six different air defense systems: The US linked its Aegis, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), and Patriot systems with Israeli Arrow 3, David’s Sling, and the Iron Dome in a single simulation, for the bi-annual drill, the IAF source said.

Juniper Cobra is the eighth in a series of biennial exercises between the two militaries dating back to 2001, and is an important part of the training of both the US EUCOM and the IDF. A five-day combined military exercise of Israel and the United States, it is built to provide training in case of a ballistic missile attack from Iran. Sources: IHS Jane’s , Jerusalem Post and IDF

In December 2015, Israel and the U.S. Missile Defense Agency celebrated successful tests of two new ballistic missile defense systems — David’s Sling, which is designed to intercept short- and medium-range threats, and ­Arrow-3, which is intended to stop long-range attacks and knock out enemy targets in space by deploying “kamikaze satellites,” or “kill vehicles,” that track their targets. David’s Sling and Arrow-3 will join Iron Dome and the existing Arrow-2 in coming months.
 
David’s Sling

David’s Sling is considered the most innovative and revolutionary among interceptor systems in the world. This system, which will be a part of a multi-layered defense system being developed by the Missile Defense Directorate in collaboration with the Air Force, would allow Israel to deal more effectively with a wide range of current and future threats to its safety. The system is designed primarily to handle the kinds of rockets and missiles, built by Iran and Russia, that are now in the possession of the Hizbollah militia in Lebanon and the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. Beyond the threat posed by the splintering of Syria, Israel is worried that Syrian missiles could be transferred to Hezbollah or acquired by the Islamic State or al-Qaeda. In a recent speech, Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah threatened that his militia’s missiles could strike ammonia storage tanks in Israel’s Haifa port in a future showdown with Israel, warning that the damage would be equivalent to an atomic bomb and could kill 800,000 people.

The delivery process is gradual, according to David’s Sling development plan, and is expected to go on for a few weeks. In the first phase, the project's managers began delivering the interception, command and control, and radar systems. The IAF will now start testing the performance of all of the system's components, following which the system will be declared operational.

Israel's Multilayered Missile Defences

The Israeli defense establishment and its American partners have designed a layered system that will allow the Jewish state to respond to simultaneous attacks from multiple fronts — the relatively crude homemade rockets lobbed by Hamas from the Gaza Strip, the midrange rockets and missiles fired by the Shiite militants of Hezbollah from Lebanon, and the long-range ballistic missiles being developed by Iran that could carry conventional or chemical warheads.

The multi-platform system includes the Iron Dome, which stops low-accuracy rockets like those fired by Hamas from the Gaza Strip or from the Sinai e.g. by ISIS-Sinai Province (aka former ‘Ansar Bait al-Maqdis’ - ABM) . Recently more Iron Dome batteries have been upgraded. The system's interception range has been significantly extended over the past two years.

David’s Sling is designed to bridge the lower and upper tiers of Israel’s four-layer active defence network. It will be deployed above Israel’s Iron Dome and below the upper-atmospheric Arrow-2 and exo-atmospheric Arrow-3. It is to be particularly useful in defending against the vast and increasingly precise arsenal of Syrian 302mm rockets and Iranian half-ton warhead-equipped Fatah 110 rockets in the hands of Lebanon-based Hizbollah. It also is designed to defend against Scud B-class ballistic missiles, which can deliver one-ton warheads at ranges of some 300 kilometers.

The successful Arrow 3 interception test carried out in December 2015 has brought forward the system's initial operating capability date, which is now expected before the end of 2016. The operationalisation of Arrow 3, which is designed to intercept ballistic missiles when they are still outside the Earth's atmosphere, will complete Israel's multilayered missile defences.
Additionally, Israel’s new X-Band radar system will allow it to detect incoming missiles from up to 600 miles out, compared to its current radar tracking capability of 100 miles. The system can also calculate the trajectories of rockets and missiles, stopping the incoming projectiles if they are intended for cities, military bases, or important infrastructure, while holding its fire if the incoming projectiles end up landing in unpopulated areas.

“I define the system as pioneering,” Uzi Rubin, the former director of Israel’s missile defence program, told the Post. “Even the United States doesn’t have anything as complex, as sophisticated.” The system will also be able to prioritize incoming rockets and missiles by calculating their trajectories. Some missiles may not be intercepted, if their targets are fields and farms, but projectiles that would hit populated areas or important infrastructure — such as military bases, oil refineries and nuclear facilities — would be stopped.


However Israel’s military leaders warn civilians that no air defense ­system is perfect — or even close to it. “There is no hermetic defense or total security that will intercept everything fired at Israel. In the next real war, rockets will fall on the State of Israel,” said Brig. Gen. Zvika Haimovich, commander of the Israeli air force’s Aerial Defense Division. Source: The Washington Post
 
The outcome: Qualitative military edge (QME)

When it is complete, Israel’s multibillion-dollar rocket and missile air defense system will be far superior to anything in the Middle East and will likely rival, and in some ways surpass, in speed and targeting, air defenses deployed by Europe and the United States, its developers say. The United States has provided more than $3.3 billion over the past 10 years to support the defensive system, which will be able to knock down not only ballistic missiles but also orbiting satellites. The Israeli missile defense system is being built in partnership with U.S. defense contractors, including Raytheon, Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

Almost all current US aid to Israel is in the form of military assistance. U.S. military aid has helped transform Israel’s armed forces into one of the most technologically sophisticated militaries in the world. U.S. military aid for Israel has been designed to maintain Israel’s “qualitative military edge” (QME) over neighboring militaries. The rationale for QME is that Israel must rely on better equipment and training to compensate for being much smaller geographically and in terms of population than its potential adversaries. U.S. military aid, a portion of which may be spent on procurement from Israeli defense companies, also has helped Israel build a domestic defence industry, which ranks as one of the top 10 suppliers of arms worldwide.

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Why Israel's new defense system is one of the most advanced in the world:

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