Is it Santa only?

X-mas news from Bosnia were a bit confusing. The directors of Sarajevo’s day-care centres, kindergartens and pre-schools banned Santa. I personally detest Santa – especially its Coce version – but if someone likes him it’s up to them. More serious however is if this event reflects something more about today’s society in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The reason to ban Santa was according officials that the capital is predominantly Muslim and Santa Claus is not part of the Muslim tradition. Locally Santa is known as Father Frost who has given out presents to generations of Bosnian kids in kindergartens and other institutions and even during communist rule. After ban some multi-religious group of parents demonstrated in Sarajevo saying that Santa/Father Frost should be seen as a Bosnian tradition.

During last months some small but alarming events – related to intolerance and rise of radical Islam - have took place in Bosnia-Herzegovina such as following examples:

• On August 2008 The Croatia Libertas NGO says that the decision to paint pavements in Sarajevo in green – the color traditionally linked with Islam - is pure provocation stating that the painted pavements were a clear message from Muslims to all the city’s other residents that Sarajevo was not the capital city of Bosnia-Herzegovina, but an ethnically Bosniak capital.
• On September 2008 I wrote about two cases: hunt by Bosnian Muslim Intelligence agency of two Islamic terrorists and second when a Gay festival were attacked by a group of young Muslims (Wahhabis) in Sarajevo.
• On October my concern was how Croatians in Bosnia felt that they are victims of Bosnian Muslim terror.
• On November 2008 after Mumbai attack I wrote how arms trafficking in Bosnia had changed more alarming not because their selling in EU but because their planned use in Europe by radicals.
  

While now December reading Santa story from Bosnia one aspect is that the actors are not radical Wahhabis, terrorists, hooligans and common criminals; in this case the officials – public authorities – were in key role. Does this mean that the whole (Muslim) society is going towards intolerance, does these small isolated events mean that last nail has hammered to coffin of multi-ethnic ideals. Let’s hope not, in year 2009 we are more wise.

Squandering Kosovo's Aid funds

A big part of EU Aid for reconstruction projects of Kosovo has been wasted due criminal activities, corruption, frauds and mismanagement reports German daily Die Welt on 18th Dec. 2008. As base of this claim are the investigations conducted by the EU Anti Fraud Office (OLAF), UN investigators and the Italian Financial Police. More than 50 cases of financial embezzlement was found - most of them in energy sector. In twelve of these cases there is proof of criminal liability.

According to EU data roughly 2.3 billion euro have been granted for Kosovo as aid since 1999, after the NATO bombing of Serbia. Some 400 million euros has been wasted for energy projects. According to the alleged reports, EU funds that had been destined for Kosovo’s energy sector, were misappropriated by UN officials in Kosovo, in conduit with local politicians. Whatever the reasons the results are humble at best - after eight years investments power cuts are still part of daily life in Kosovo.

While most of the 2.3 billion Euros invested in the reconstruction of Kosovo has disappeared without a trace and when it is expected that by 2011 the EU will throw Kosovo another one billion euro it could be clever to spare a minute for quality-planning and future management.

Case Bulgaria

On July 2008 I wrote an article “Bulgaria wrestles for EU funds and credibility” about different aspects of misuse of EU funds. In addition to normal crimes etc. I highlighted also the structure, conflicting regulations, misunderstandings, management priorities etc as reason for claims of misuse of funds.

My main message in case Bulgaria was that criminal activities such as fraud and corruption explained only a minor part sc. misused EU funds. I think that the same is true also with case Kosovo.

Case Kosovo

Criminal activities and mismanagement at operational or implementing level are some reasons for waste of foreign Aid money in Kosovo. However the province has also some characteristic aspects as follows:

* The main power plant is old and during last decade before Nato bombings it needed creative improvisation by then Serb workers to operate. After bombings that staff escaped, unskilled Albanian workers came in and could not do the same. Also foreigner consultants could not teach improvisation, their experience was from different field.
* Kosovo administration was and still is a chaos. EU throw Aid money through its own agency or different programmes, through UN system or UNMIK’s EU Pillar; donor money went through bilateral agreements through administrative structure or NGOs or even through Kfor; the implementation of development plans and projects in many cases was made by individual consultants/firms so coordination was nonexistent.
* Local expertise, commitment and participation to project implementation was insignificant so the foreigners – who were distributing Aid – had their own sandbox and the local beneficiaries their own. The point of view was that of service provider not the one of client.

The bottom line

There seems to be a huge gap between fine ideas/plans/collected money in Brussels and their reasonable distribution at local level in Kosovo. The biggest mismanagement or misuse of Aid money is not according my opinion local criminal activities. The strategic error has made in international level by not knowing the demands on the ground, not adjusting ideas and plans according local needs or the moment of Aid delivery, using indefinite mixture of emergency relief and long term planning, lack of simple and unambiguous development strategy and strategic leadership.

The real crime will be if international community does not correct earlier errors and practices at strategic level – only after that one can demand smoothly flowing project at local level.

More my articles one may find from my Archives:Blog

Visa rank and the Western Balkans

Earlier I wrote about political rights, citizen liberties and press freedom in Balkans ("Freedom in Balkans"). To travel from one country to other is a fundamental freedom restricted however more or less depending about which passport the traveler holds. In practice traveling especially nowadays is restricted because lack of money but I limit this article only formal visa restrictions.

Visa restrictions play an important role in controlling the movement of foreign nationals across borders. They are also an expression of the relationships between individual nations, and generally reflect the relations and status of a country within the international community of nations. Visa restrictions also are reflecting the political situation of the time e.g. some 20 years ago citizens of Yugoslavia could travel relatively free, but the breakup wars changed situation completely.
The Henley Visa Restrictions Index

Henley & Partners is a firm specialized in international immigration, consular and citizenship law. Henley & Partners has analyzed the visa regulations of all the countries and territories in the world. It has created an index which ranks countries according to the visa-free access its citizens enjoy to other countries. This Index is globally known as “The Henley Visa Restrictions Index”. (Source and more about H&P please visit in their homepage http://www.henleyglobal.com )

Rank. Passport[s] of Country/Countries, Number of Countries Accessible Without Visa / Visa on Arrival (Balkans and Caucasus bold)

01. Denmark, Finland, United States, 130.
02. Germany, Ireland, Sweden, 129.
03. France, Great Britain (UK citizen passport), Italy, Japan, 128.

04. Belgium, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, 127.
05. Netherlands, 126.
06. Austria, Canada, Luxembourg, New Zealand, 125.
07. Portugal, 123.
08. Singapore, 122.
09. Australia, Greece, Iceland, Malaysia, 120.

10. Liechtenstein, 116.
11. Malta, South Korea, 115.
12. Cyprus, 113.
13. Hong Kong, 110.
14. Chile, San Marino, 109.
15. Monaco, 108.
16. Poland, 106.
17. Slovenia, 105.
18. Israel, 104.
19. Argentina, Brunei, Hungary, 101.

20. Andorra, Brazil, Uruguay, 99.
21. Czech Republic, Mexico, 98.
22. Slovakia, 97.
23. Costa Rica, 95.
24. Lithuania, 94.
25. Venezuela, 92.
26. Estonia, Latvia, 91.
27. Vatican City, 87.
28. Croatia, 84.
29. Bolivia, Bulgaria, 83.

30. Guatemala, Panama, Paraguay, 82.
31. El Salvador, 81.
32. Honduras, 80.
33. Nicaragua, 75.
34. Romania, 73
35. Bahamas, Barbados, Macau, 71.
36. Trinidad and Tobago, 66.
37. South Africa, 65.
38. St.Vincent and Grenadines, 64.
39. Antigua and Barbuda, St. Lucia, 63.

40. St. Kitts-Nevis, 62.
41. Grenada, 60.
42. Belize, 58.
43. Jamaica, 57.
44. Solomon Islands, 54.
45. Gambia, Guyana, 53.
46. Dominica, Mauritius, Seychelles, Turkey, 52.
47. Lesotho, 51.
48. Tuvalu, 50.
49. Kiribati, Western Samoa, 49.

50. Botswana, Malawi, 48.
51. Fiji, Sierra Leone, Vanuatu, 47.
52. Kenya, Maldives, Swaziland, Tonga, 46.
53. Ghana, Zambia, 45.
54. Nauru, 44.
55. Ecuador, Namibia, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, 41.
56. Suriname, 40.
57. Kuwait, Mauritania, Uganda, 39.
58. Bahrain, Mali, Tunisia, 38.
59. Guinea, Ivory Coast, Niger, Qatar, Senegal, 37.

60. Benin, Cape Verde, Marshall Islands, Oman, 36.
61. Burkina Faso, 35.
62. Nigeria, Russia, Togo, United Arab Emirates, 35.
63. Guinea-Bissau, Micronesia, Philippines, 33.
64. Belarus, Colombia, Palau Islands, Serbia-Montenegro, Ukraine, 32.
65. Liberia, Macedonia, Saudi Arabia, 31.
66. Morocco, 30.
67. Indonesia, Moldova, Thailand, 29.
68. Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Central African Republic, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, 28.
69. Armenia, Chad, Congo Brazzaville, Cuba, Tajikistan, 27.

70. Cameroon, 26.
71. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dominican Republic, India, Madagascar, 25.
72. Egypt, Gabon, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, 24.
73. Algeria, Rwanda, 23.
74. Haiti, Mozambique, São Tomé and Principe, Sri Lanka, 22.
75. East Timor, Jordan, 21.
76. Comores Islands, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Laos, Nepal, 20.
77. Angola, Bhutan, Djibouti, Libya, Turkmenistan, 19.
78. Burundi, China, Ethiopia, North Korea, Vietnam, Yemen, 18.
79. Albania, Cambodia, Lebanon, Pakistan, Sudan, 17.

80. Congo, Syria, 16.
81. Iraq, Myanmar, Somalia, 15.
82. Iran, 14.
83. Afghanistan, 12.

Schengen and West Balkans

Visa-free travel to EU has been in the top of wish-lists for citizens of the Western Balkans. Schengen area covers the most of EU. The visa facilitation agreements between EU and countries in West Balkans ease visa application procedures, but they do not abolish the requirement of a visa.

The core law of visa restrictions in EU is Council Regulation 539/2001. This law lists all the countries whose nationals require a visa to enter the Schengen area ("black list") as well as the countries whose nationals are exempt from this provision ("white list"). The Council will vote by majority, which means that opposing member states could be outvoted.

The European Commission has made visa roadmaps listing around 50 individual activities in each country in terms of existing legislation and practice. The conditions range from purely technical matters, such as the issuance of machine-readable passports with a gradual introduction of bio-metric data, to the adoption and implementation of a raft of laws and international conventions, to very broad matters such as progress in the fight against organized crime, corruption and illegal migration. Once a country meets the conditions, the Commission will make an official proposal to the Council to lift the visa restrictions for this country by amending Council Regulation 539/2001.

An assessment about progress with visa roadmaps has recently been made and a second round of assessment is tentatively scheduled for spring 2009 so there is hope that after one year citizens in Western Balkans have a bit more freedom to travel abroad.

More my views over Balkans and Caucasus one may find from my Archives:Blog

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Montenegro and Serbia on the way to EU - maybe

Montenegro's Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic has left Monday 15^th Dec. 2008 for Paris to submit the country's formal application for European Union membership to French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Same time Holland is still blocking implementation of suspended Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) agreement Serbia regardless of an essentially positive report on Belgrade’s cooperation with ICTY as well almost fulfilled conditions for candidate status.

The government of Montenegro decided on previous Thursday 11^th Dec. to officially submit the bid to France, current holder of the EU presidency. "By taking this step, Montenegro commits itself to the accession process and the building of a united Europe which is a strategic goal in which the founders of the European Community invested their vision and commitment," the government press office said in a statement. (BalkanInsight.com 15.12.2008)

Serbia progressing

On 5 November 2008 the Commission adopted its annual strategy document explaining its policy on EU enlargement. Same date EU released also the 2008 progress reports, where the Commission services monitor and assess the achievements of each of the candidate and potential candidates over the last year. As earlier Serbia’s administrative capacity can again match EU’s administrative challenges. (More http://arirusila.wordpress.com/2008/11/07/eu-squanders-aid-money-by-wrong-approach-in-western-balkans/, check also “Serbia’s National Programme for Integration of Serbia into EU from my Document library)

Few days ago a EU document "Guaranteeing Security in a Changing World" says Serbia is close to fulfilling all conditions for establishing close relations with the EU. (Beta 12.12.2008)

…but blocked

Same time Holland will not change its position when it comes to Serbia's EU integration. Holland sees Mladi?'s arrest and extradition as the best proof of cooperation. Serbia and EU signed late April 2008 the temporary trade agreement which is part of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) and suspended immediately, pending Belgrade's full cooperation with the Hague Tribunal. (B92 13.12.2008)

Serbia’s Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic told Tanjug news agency in an interview published 14^th Nov. 2008 that EU candidate status and liberalization of the visa regime remain Serbia's absolute foreign policy priority for 2009. He added that the issue of Kosovo and EU integrations are separate processes, but repeated that should the two overlap, Serbia would choose to preserve her territorial integrity. (B92 14.12.2008)

4500 questions

The EU discussion in Serbia has been concentrated to question when Mr.Mladic will be delivered to Hague. This is only one side-path of EU integration. The road to membership is much more complicated both Montenegro and Serbia.

For example when a country wants to gain membership status the European Commission will at that point respond by sending a questionnaire to potential candidate countries, which includes some 4,500 question dealing with all institutions and sectors. Based on the answers, the European Commission will report on the situation in the country which has applied. And then are starting negotiations where some 80.000 pages of EU regulations are applied to candidate country’s legislation.

Conditions, criteria, politics

I have no doubt that both Montenegro and Serbia can and will give satisfactory answers to EC questionnaire and have good ability to fulfil (pre) conditions. Both countries have so good administrative capacity that they can match all criteria needed for membership.

EC can be also freeze the process if there is some unfinished border dispute with candidate country. Montenegro’s way with towards EU seems clear but it is hard to believe that Serbia and EC will soon agree which are the borders of Serbia – are they including Kosovo or not?

After all the refined negotiation process however the climax will be political one – EU can take new members with any criteria and lower standards like it was case with Bulgaria and Romania.

Any alternatives?

The membership in EU should not be overestimated – non membership does not mean to be outside Europe. Norway, Russia, young Caucasian republics all have achieved pragmatic relationship with EU without membership. The new Eastern Partnership (EaP) program has recently been distributed to European capitals. The new "belt of EU friends" at Russia's eastern and southern borders would include Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova and Belarus. The European Neighbourhood Policy, which the EU has pursued since 2004, is going to be replaced with the Eastern Partnership (EaP).

Similar arrangements one may wait from EU with Turkey in near future, EU-Mediterranean dimension is on the way, new negotiations with Russia are starting about future programs. EU can be very creative finding out different forms for cooperation when needed.

From my point of view also Serbia should think if joining to EU is worth of time, money and bureaucracy it demands. Visa arrangements, free trade and some EU programs are possible also for non-members. Of course Serbia can develop its administration and legislation according EU standards but not because of fulfilling EU needs. The primus motor should be the needs of the beneficiaries aka Serbs not EU elite in Brussels.

The will and ability

Totally outside of framework described above is the question if EU has the will and ability to absorb new members and if yes which members. Lisbon Treaty is still uncertain; some EU countries want strong federation some are satisfied to loose Union. The big wannabies – Ukraine and Turkey – EU hardly could absorb due the budget limitations and due the power shift the new members could make.

As said earlier Montenegro probably can go thewhole way to EU without any bigger problems but Serbia will be fighting long with EU’s – public or hidden – political conditions. So my modest hope is that Serbia rethinks its priorities, makes new SWOT analysis according today’s situation, makes a vision where the country wants be after 5-10-25 years, creates strategy, alliances and action plans to realize the vision - be it outside or inside EU is only secondary question.

More my views over Balkans one may find from my BalkanBlog

Ten things you maybe didn't know about Pridnestrovie

Recently I was searching some information about Transnistria - aka Pridnestrovie - and found a probably official web-portal of this not recognized state. Originally Transnistria called my attention first because its quite ready statehood elements without outside recognition, second because of changed circumstances in respect for international law after Kosovo unilateral declaration of independence and thirdly because I predicted that Trandnistria could be the next tinderbox of separatism between Georgian conflict and coming troubles in Ukraine.

In any case my bet is that in western Europe here is lack of wider knowledge over Transdnistria and therefore I copy here Ten things you maybe didn't know about the place. Of course one can have some reservations due the reason that material is from "official" web-sites; however if you go to original source you can have more information about every point, compare it to other information available and make your own conclusions.

Here are some quick facts that will no doubt surprise you:

10: Double of Iceland's population

9: Multi-party democracy

8: Signed UN human rights charters

7: Market based economy

6: A total of 35 nationalities live here

5: OSCE-ruled elections

4: "Clean" report from EU border monitors

3: Historically, never part of Moldova

2: Industrial powerhouse

1: Government success

And open the countdown to get full picture from here!

More views over Balkans and Caucasus one may find from here!

Strange BND affair in Kosovo

On 14^th Nov. 2008 a bomb planted at the office of the European Union Special Representative was detonated in Pristina, Kosovo. Three officers of Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) – Foreign Intelligence service of Germany – were arrested. The three agents - despite protestations from Berlin and the BND of their innocence - spent 10 days in detention. The case created tensions between Germany and Kosovo's local government and nobody seems to know how the case developed so far in public.

Today doubts concerning the culpability of the BND agents seemed to have been cleared. The previously unheard of ‘Army of the Republic of Kosovo’ (ARK) had accepted responsibility for the bomb attack. Laboratory tests had shown no evidence of the BND agents’ involvement. In addition, a television report had aired quoting a police report that allegedly said that the Germans had in no way been involved. (Source Welt-Online)

Now the agents are free and the Kosovo government has expressed its regret over detention. (Source: Deutsche Welle).

BND in Kosovo

For a number of years, Kosovo has been a major operational area for the BND. In addition to being politically unstable and located not far from Germany's borders, it is a hotbed of organized crime with links to Germany and is a country where numerous German police officers and soldiers are stationed.

A German magazine Der Spiegel published a wide article about BND in Kosovo. It claims that there are no less than three BND departments focusing on Kosovo, including Department Five, responsible for organized crime, the same department that certified in 2005 that Prime Minister Thaçi is a key figure in a Kosovar-Albanian mafia network. (Source Spiegel) .

Some backgrounds of Kosovo “Independence”

Tom Burghard describes in “The Intelligence Daily” some backgrouds of Kosovo’s “independence”.

“When Kosovo proclaimed its "independence" in February, the Western media hailed the provocative dismemberment of Serbia, a move that completed the destruction of Yugoslavia by the United States, the European Union and NATO, as an exemplary means to bring "peace and stability" to the region. If by "peace" one means impunity for rampaging crime syndicates or by "stability," the freedom of action with no questions asked by U.S. and NATO military and intelligence agencies, not to mention economic looting on a grand scale by freewheeling multinational corporations, then Kosovo has it all! (Source The Intelligance Daily)

Revence?

So how is it possible that this BND affair took place in circumstances described earlier? Given the fact that after the U.S. Germany is the 2^nd largest financial backer of Kosovo, why would the Thaci government risk alienating the German state - why did Mr. Thaci choose to pick this fight with Germany in the first place? Günther Lachmann said quite straight in his article on 30th Nov. 2008 in Die Welt, that “In security circles one hears various answers to this question. The most common one is that the action was taken as revenge". The cause of revenge are leaked BND reports linking Kosovo's political leaders to international organized crime.

Leaked BND reports

At the time, the confidential report was quickly leaked to the media. Thaçi has never forgiven the Germans for that.( Der Spiegel). The reports in question are a 67-page long, hard-hitting analysis by the BND about organized crime in Kosovo and a confidential 108-page report contracted by the German military, the Bundeswehr (sc. BND-IEP Report Kosovo 2007).

The BND-IEP report also repeats the accusations against Thaci claiming, that real power in Kosovo lays with 15 to 20 family clans who control “almost all substantial key social positions” and are “closely linked to prominent political decision makers,”.

In contrast to the CIA and MI6, both German intelligence reports accuse Thaci as well as former Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj and Xhavit Haliti of the parliamentary leadership of far-reaching involvement in organized crime.

More about leaked BND reports as follows:

• Leaked BND Report 2005 (Short 27-p leaked BND report can be found upside down)
• BND-IEP Report Kosovo 2007 (Operatinalisierung von Security Sector Reform (SSR) auf dem Westlichen Balkan intelligente/kreativ Ansätze fier die langfristig positive Gestaltung dieser Region)

Facts on the ground are remaining

In reports mentioned above is nothing new for intelligence agencies. As a former official of the United States Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) Michael Levine has said that one of the wings of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) was "linked with every known narco-cartel in the Middle East and the Far East", and that almost every European intelligence service and police has files on "connections between ethnic Albanian rebels and drug trafficking". (More inB92 article).

U.S. involvement?

There are also still further hypotheses made by Peter Schwartz in The Intelligence Daily based to BND-IEP report about substantial tensions between German and American bodies. “The German report is particular critical of the role of the US, which had obstructed European investigations and which had been opened up to political extortion by the existence of secret CIA detention centres in the grounds of Camp Bondsteel in Kosovo.” (Source The Intelligence Daily ).

The bottom line

Whatever is the true story about BND affair in Kosovo or its background the follow-up is an increasing lack of confidence between German authorities and present Kosovo government as well doubts to skills of BND.

A high-ranking BND official spoke out with yet sharper words. “The German government had allowed itself to be dragged by the nose through global politics by a country in which organized crime is the form of government,” he told the Sueddeutsche Zeitung. (Welt-Online)

More my views over Kosovo onemay find from my Archives:Blog

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P.S. Some times ago there was rumors about BND report claiming that then UN envoy Ahtisaari took bribes from (Kosovo) Albanian mafia. However I have not found any proof or reports about this case. If someone has more info so please send a link to proof that the case includes something more that a propaganda article.

A deadly combination of crime and religion

In my last week article “Quadruple Helix …” I shortly hinted to financial connection between Wahhabi organizations and international terrorism. I also pointed historical and social link between organized crime groups and political leaders and the international dimensions of system which I called as Quadruple Helix model. Today I was reading news from Axis Eurasian Secret Services Daily Review and one of them popped to my eyes immediately related to my earlier – maybe a little bit provocative – article. I quote:

Russian special services have managed to find out the name of one of organizers of the last month's terror attacks in Mumbai, India, news agencies are reporting. According to Director of Russia's Federal Anti-Narcotics Service Viktor Ivanov, drug baron Dawood Ibrahim was directly involved in the incident.

"The gathered inputs testify that infamous regional drug baron Dawood Ibrahim had provided his logistics network for preparing and carrying out the Mumbai terror attacks by the militants," news agency RIA Novosti cites the top Russian official. In an interview to the government daily Rossiiskaya Gazeta Ivanov said the Mumbai mayhem is a 'burning example' of the use of illegal drug trafficking network for perpetrating terrorism. "The super profits of the narco-mafia through Afghan heroin trafficking have become a powerful source of financing organized crime and terrorist networks, destabilizing the political systems, including in Central Asia and Caucasus," Ivanov marked.

Dawood Ibrahim sought by India for 1993 Mumbai (then Bombay) serial blasts, killing 257, is said to be among the list of wanted persons sent to Islamabad in the wake of last month's Mumbai terror attacks organized by Lashkar-e-Taiba, Rossiiskaya Gazeta noted.

This information seems to hint that secular organized crime and religious fanaticism are not so far away, they can find common political targets and they can mplement joint operations.

More my views over Balkans and Caucasus one may find from my Archives:Blog

Freedom in Balkans

Political freedom is usually described as the absence of interference with the sovereignty of an individual by the use of coercion or aggression. Often word “Liberty” - the condition in which an individual has the ability to act according to his or her own will - has been connected to freedom and social anarchists see negative and positive liberty as complementary concepts of freedom.

Freedom House is an independent nongovernmental organization based in USA that supports the expansion of freedom in the world. Freedom House’s definition of freedom is derived in large measure from the Universal Declaration of Human Rights that was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1948. The Declaration includes freedom of religion, expression, and assembly; freedom from torture; and the right to take part in the government of his or her country.

With these limitations – US organisation and definition of freedom – the survey anyway tells something also about Balkans.

Global perspective

The Freedom in the World survey provides an annual evaluation of the state of global freedom as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom—the opportunity to act spontaneously in a variety of fields outside the control of the government according to two broad categories:

• Political rights enable people to participate freely in the political process, including the right to vote freely for distinct alternatives in legitimate elections, compete for public office, join political parties and organizations, and elect representatives who have a decisive impact on public policies and are accountable to the electorate.
• Civil liberties allow for the freedoms of expression and belief, associational and organizational rights, rule of law, and personal autonomy without interference from the state.

The Center for Religious Freedom was a division of Freedom House for 11 years. In December 2006, the Center moved to the Hudson Institute so data over this aspect will be found from there. (http://www.hudson.org)

As an outcome of Freedom House’s survey is e.g. country reports, tables and charts and especially “Map of Freedom” which also can act as interactive tool to reach data collected.

Map of Freedom by Freedom House

Balkans

The results of last survey vary quite a lot by country. Below I collected a table of results in Balkans from Freedom House’s 2008 publication adding to last column the score from religious survey 2007 of Hudson Institute. Each pair of political rights and civil liberties ratings is averaged to determine an overall status of “Free,” “Partly Free,” or “Not Free.” Those whose ratings average 1.0 to 2.5 are considered Free, 3.0 to 5.0 Partly Free, and 5.5 to 7.0 Not Free.

Country	Status	Political Rights	Civil Liberties	Religious freedom
Kosovo (province under UNSC 1244)	Not free	6	5	4
Albania	Partly free	3	3	na
Macedonia (FRY)	Partly free	3	3	4
Bosnia-Herzegovina	Partly free	3	3	na
Montenegro	Partly free	3	3	na
Serbia	Free	3	2	4
Romania	Free	2	2	3
Croatia	Free	2	2	na
Bulgaria	Free	1	2	3
Slovenia	Free	1	1	na

Freedom of the Press in Balkans

A free press plays a key role in sustaining and monitoring a healthy democracy, as well as in contributing to greater accountability, good government, and economic development. Freedom House has been monitoring threats to media independence and their annual survey tracks trends in global press freedom and draws attention to countries or regions where such freedom is under threat.

I collected data related to Balkans from the 2008 edition of Freedom of the Press published by Freedom House and the situation is as follows (Rank among 194 countries):

Country	Rating	Rank
Slovenia	23	46
Bulgaria	33	76
Croatia	36	78
Montenegro	38	81
Serbia	39	84
Romania	44	94
Bosnia-Herzegovina	45	97
Macedonia (FRY)	47	100
Albania	50	105
Kosovo	na	na

The country status related freedom of press was in Slovenia free, all the others got status partly free.

Some conclusions

The Freedom House’s ratings are maybe giving too good picture about freedom in anglo-american-West European countries. Despite there undoubtedly is wide formal freedom e.g. in media the business “laws” are guiding the mainstream media to uncritical approach so that profits and advertisement incomes are not in danger.

The freedom ratings with political rights, civil liberties, religious and press freedom were not so bad in Balkans especially against the turbulent background of modern history. Naturally there is challenges ahead and work to do. The only peculiarity was the result of Kosovo which is ranked as ‘not free’ and received scores the same as Sudan, Chad and Egypt in terms of political rights and civil liberties. Odd because UNMIK was send Kosovo to introduce democratic standards and human rights in its protectorate. If the result is this so the mission must have failed disastrously and lessons learned should fast to be applied in future missions of crisis management.

More my views over Balkans and Caucasus one may find from my BalkanBlog

Radical Islamists arming their selves in Balkans

Radical Islam is again in headlines thanks for recent attack in Mumbai. Already during battle discussion had started about foreign connections of terrorists. Besides Pakistan also British and Bosnian connections were mentioned. The question is mostly related to Muslim immigrants living in West. As far as Bosnia or western Balkans is concerned the core problem is created after mid-90s when region started to transform to safe haven for radical Islam.

Background

In my article “Radical islamist network spreading in Balkans” (28/09/2008) I summarized that

Radical Islam has enforced and widened their activities in Balkans last 15 years. During Bosnian war many foreign Islamists came to fight in mujahedeen brigade also many Al Quida figures - including Osama bin Laden - were supporting Bosnian Muslims 1990's. Later they gave their support to KLA/UCK (Kosovo) which leaders now are leading Kosovo province based on US and EU support. After bombing campaign 1999 radical Islam has been one major donor in Kosovo and Wahhabi schools and former secularized Kosovo Muslims are displaced by radical Islamic movement. During Balkan wars e.g. Bosnia was acting as Europe’s leading training camp for domestic and foreign Islamists and their supporters. So it is easy to see the real or exaggerated connections between Britain, Bosnia and Afghanistan/Pakistan.

British-Pakistan connection

In an article of one British publication(Telegraph.co.uk 29/11/2008) is a pithy description over Brit-Paki way to Radicalism.

The path from Britain to the terror training camps of Pakistan is a well-trodden one, with dozens of young Muslim extremists from this country travelling abroad to learn their deadly trade. In most cases they make the journey after being radicalised by preachers in Britain, who tell them that Islam is under attack around the world and that they cannot stand by idly or simply raise money for the cause. Some claim they only wanted to fight against the enemy in Kashmir or Afghanistan, or to learn how to defend fellow Muslims in other warzones such as Bosnia or Chechnya.

Radical Islamists arming their selves in Bosnia

Western Balkans is known as junction of different kind of trafficking. Biggest profits probably are coming from drugs arriving from Afghanistan to be distributed in EU area. Related to issue of terrorism the arms trafficking is now alarming not only because their selling in EU but because their planned use in Europe by radicals.

Last week an article in Serbianna (24/1/208) gave more light to topic. A group of radical Islamists that is ready to engage in terror activities is based in Bosnia, says Bosnia's police chief Zlatko Miletic. "Wahabis have become the synonym for that sort of terrorism, but here is matter is about salafis as well," says Miletic. He continues that 4 different groups operate in Bosnia, all of interest, because of their views of the world. Most concerning, says Miletic, is that these groups are buying suicide vests adding that early in 2008, Wahabis and other groups sympathetic to al-Qaeda are moving large quantities of explosives and weapons to Croatia. Islamic terrorists believe that Croatia will soon become a member of the EU which would allow an unimpeded weapons transfer from Croatia and into Europe.

Wahabi trial in Serbia

At the regional conference on security held in October in Slovenia's city of Kranj, Serbia's security minister Ivica Dacic stressed that there is evidence of presence of the international and domestic terrorism in Serbia citing Albanian terrorism in the south and the influence of Wahabis in the Raska area, referred to as Sandjak by the Muslims. End of November 2008, a trial of 15 Wahabis started after Serbia's police broke up the group involved in a plot to bomb buildings across Serbia and the US Embassy in Belgrade. One of the Wahabis, Ismail Prentic, escaped to Kosovo where local Albanians gave him sanctuary. Prentic was later apprehended but died in a shoot out with the police. According sources the Wahabis secretly train, mobilize, inspire and train recruits from the converts to be experts in explosives.

The prosecution at the trial of 15 Wahabis charged that they have plotted terrorism has shown Osama bin Laden videos that have been found on the laptop confiscated during a raid on the Wahabi camp earlier this year. Many security analyst note that al Zawahiri’s (probably N:o 2. in al-Qaeda) brother was dispatched to the Balkans to establish al-Qaeda cells in regions dominated by Muslims such as Bosnia and Raska and Kosovo regions in Serbia. (Source Serbianna 29/11/2008)

Croats in Bosnia under attack

In my article “Islamic terror in Bosnia” (13/10/2008) I described how a Croatian NGO Libertas made public statement in which it says that Croatians in Bosnia are victims of Bosnian Muslim terror and are asking Bosnian Croat political leadership to initiate a plan that will break up the Bosnian Federation entity and form a Croatian one.

The tensions have continued since October. E.g. police in Mostar, Bosnia-Herzegovina, are still on alert, although eight days have passed since Muslim and Croat students engaged in a fierce clash.Five days ago, local police prevented a mass free-for-all of some 300 students. The date and time for the fight was set in advance via an internet portal, and was to take place between Croat and Muslim youths on the line which divides the town of Mostar to its eastern and western parts. (Source B92 29/11/2008)

Bottom line

The Wahabism is "alien" not only to Bosnia and Kosovo but in the entire south-eastern Europe, where secularism has been common until last decade. The issues of Wahabism could quickly disturb the harmony of the Kosovo Albanian patriarchal family structure dominated by honor and vendettas.

The Radical Islam is relatively new phenomenon in Balkans. It has good connections to other relevant players on scene and motivation enough to die for their case. Is it now with more arms progressing on new more aggressive stage shall be seen.

More over Balkans and Caucasus in my Archives:Blog

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UN adopts 6-point plan for Kosovo - bye bye independence experiment

A week ago I wrote here an article “UN deciding over plan for Kosovo – which plan to select?”. On the table was a 6-point plan negotiated between UN and Serbia, and a 4-point plan, a declaration by Kosovo’s separatist government. Now we know the answer – 6-point plan was selected unanimously in UNSC. Next question would be the consequences of decision.

The Decision

The UN Security Council on Wednesday 26^th Nov. 2008 in New York unanimously adopted the UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon's report on the reorganization of the civil mission in Kosovo. Ban’s spokesman Brenden Varma told B92 earlier today that the secretary-general’s report welcomes the positive outcome of the talks on the six points of the UNMIK reorganization and Belgrade’s decision to accept the agreement.

Serbia’s Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremić welcomed Ban's Kosovo report, saying

"The explicit language of the report confirms the status neutrality of EULEX's engagement, which is a guarantee that no part of its mandate can be devoted to the implementation of the Ahtisaari Plan for Kosovo's independence-rejected by the Republic of Serbia, and 'never endorsed by the Security Council,' in the words of the report that is before us today." (Source B92)

"EULEX will fully respect Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999) and operate under the overall authority and within the status-neutral framework of the United Nations," Ban Ki-moon said in the report to the UN Security Council. By working within the framework of the resolution, the mission in Kosovo will not imply any recognition of the territory's independence. (AFP)

The consequences

Analysts in Priština have noted, that accepting the 6-point-plan for would mean that the Kosovo officials would formally lose their sovereignty over North Kosovo, though this sovereignty does not exist essentially. One could think that latest UNSC decision does not change anything. My opinion is that some change will come and that decision opens also new possibilities for future status arrangements. The follow-up could include following aspects:

• The immediate impact will be that finally EULEX rule of law mission can be deployed throughout Kosovo. This means that some 2.000 experts is coming to secure his sector in Kosovo and hopefully also to make develop local capacities.
• International administration today in protectorate is a big mess – International Community Office, Eulex, EU Kosovo delegation and Kfor are twisting arms who is doing what and where, in addition there is a group of other powerful actors such as OSCE and liaison offices of foreign countries. The decision streamlines international administration and chain of command at least partially.
• The local administration will coordinate with internationals in Albanian majority regions and with Serbia in Serb dominated regions. However if the local stakeholders want administer more themselves without international supervision now they have possibility to negotiate future status between Pristina and Belgrade and without artificial time limits.
• If Pristina and Belgrade want Kosovo to be more than UN protectorate forever they can now adopt some of countless amount of different territorial autonomy models, develop a totally new one between themselves or agree some partition of Kosovo. One could predict that what ever compromise or outcome will mutually be agreed it will also be accepted in UN and other international bodies.

From frozen conflict to frozen independence

UN decision clarifies situation which escalated by Kosovo’s Unilateral Declaration of Independence. This came in right moment before Kosovo would developed to next “failed or captured state”. Probably also local population in Kosovo has noticed during short independence experiment that for state more is needed than only flag and anthem. Now – when e.g. EU still is pumping money to province – is time to build own administrative capacity, hopefully democratic practices and sustainable economy. As UN protectorate – even formally still as one province of Serbia – and by backing of EU funds the population in Kosovo has leverage peacefully, without time limits and predicted outcome to develop its autonomy and next future status.

More my views one may find from my Archives:blog

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War crime selected – organ harvesting from Serbs by KLA

One of the most macabre recent war crime is harvesting organs from captured Serbs by Kosovo Albanian guerrillas during Kosovo conflict 1998-99. The story was kept undercover by western mainstream media until last April 2008 before former UN war crimes prosecutor Carla del Ponte opened her mouth. New reportages was made e.g. by German Der Spiegel magazine and justice departments from Albania and Serbia have started high level cooperation for case. Council of Europe has decided to re-examine the case, which maybe has also link to illegal organ transplant clinic raided in Pristina, Kosovo, early November 2008.

The Guardian article

A new article by Paul Lewis appeared in the Guardian on Nov. 25^th 2008 giving a quite complementary picture of events. His story includes also a video clip over trip of Mr. Lewis to “slaughterhouse” a country house in northern Albania's mountain region near town Burrel.

Here a comprehensive quote about background:

Of all the many atrocities that human rights groups want investigated from the 1998-99 Kosovo conflict, the alleged harvesting of organs from Serbian soldiers by ethnic Albanians is one of the most gruesome. Hundreds of Serbian families have for a decade been demanding what happened to those who disappeared during and after the war. In April, Carla Del Ponte the former UN war crimes prosecutor, gave greater credence to suggestions of a macabre operation, in which as many as 300 Serbs were allegedly abducted and transported to Albania to have their organs removed. In a memoir, she wrote: "Victims deprived of only their first kidney were sewn up and confined again inside the shack until they were killed for their vital organs."

UN examination 2004

After Mrs. Del Ponte’s sensational disclosure started a work to verify her statements. For example UN had made some checking based ICTY testimonials. However, the UN examination, commissioned by Del Ponte, was previously believed to be missing. Now the Guardian has obtained the report of a UN forensic examination, by a UN expert, José Pablo Baraybar of the Katuci house – aka "yellow house" aka "Burrel house" aka "slaughterhouse" – and it can be found from here.

Baraybar, the former director of the UN's missing persons and forensics unit in Kosovo, said his team found "highly indicative evidence" that pointed to organ removal at the Burrel house, and prosecutors received testimony from eight witnesses. They comprised "foot soldiers" who claimed to be present during the surgery, he said, and a driver who claimed he brought small groups of Serb soldiers to the house from across the Kosovo border. The driver then described taking conspicuous packages to Tirana airport, bound for flights to Turkey. The surgeon conducting the operations was identified as a Kosovan doctor from Pec, Baraybar said.

Re-examination and a new link

The Council of Europe has decided to re-examine the organ case. A special investigator Dick Marty and his team are starting their work by gathering data from Belgrade, Pristina and Tirana.

Marty's investigation could gain additional impetus from the recent discovery of an illegal organ transplant clinic in neighbouring Kosovo. Police there raided a clinic in the suburbs of Pristina three weeks ago, arresting two doctors and the country's acting permanent secretary at the ministry of health, Ilir Rexhaj. Interpol is helping to search for a third doctor, Yusuf Ercin Sonmez, a notorious Turkish surgeon who they believe was behind the operation. (Source the Guardian article).

Selected war crimes – Why?

Why these events are coming public now after ten years? My claim is that only selected war crimes go forward. Some reasons for this from my point of view are following:

• The Anglo-American mainstream media selected its side in Balkan wars already middle 90s . The partly fabricated reports about brutalities of Serbs were published almost real-time; same time and later too the media was silent about the opposite reports of investigations or brutalities made by other sides.
• Politically it was not reasonable to change this created one-side picture about the Serbs as “bad guys” too soon to secure ground for further development of western interests in Balkans.
• The “good guys” were allies of western powers and gained local political leadership e.g. in Kosovo so of course Misters Thaci, Ceku and Haradinaj could not be guilty for some war crimes – they were representing poor Albanian victims (before side selection – middle 0s - US was treating their organisation as terrorist and criminal one).
• The witness protection in Balkans is too weak in pressure of tribe society and criminal – now political clans to get any sentence like it as case in Hague with Mr Oric (leader of Mujahedeen brigade in Bosnia) and with Mr. Haradianj (KLA leader and later PM of Kosovo).

Now the one-sided picture is slowly starting to crack, more comprehensive picture e.g. over Srebrenica case will came public when both prosecutor and defence of Karadzic have made their case. The today’s criminal activities of freedom fighters are coming public and their earlier war crimes will get new light. The big players – e.g. USA with its use of depleted uranium in Kosovo and probably other places also – will of course escape again due the immunity granted in international courts.

More my views over Balkans and Caucasus one may find from my Archives:Blog

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Two Images of Transdnistria

When I sometimes in my blogs wrote about Transdnistria (officially Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic – PMR) the most common feedback has been following:

“Transnistria is a refuge for the criminal organizations being engaged in the illegal sale of weapons, in the contraband and in the money laundering, its also a rogue state.” One could conclude that for western public has quite a bad if any image of Transdnistria. Having criticised earlier western mainstream media picture about Balkan events I wanted to check if the tradition is repeating itself same way in case Transdnistria.

Transdnistria

(Map Source - http://pridnestrovie.net)

Nato

Nato Parliamentary Assembly’s sub-committee on east-west economic co-operation and convergence published 7^th October 2007 its report over Moldova and stated:

Transnistria remains a haven for organised criminal groups, which are engaged in illegal arms sales, smuggling, and money laundering. It hosts the largest post-Soviet army depot in Kolbasna, the Russian (formerly Soviet) 14^th Army and several Soviet era armament factories.

Reading this kind of statements makes me really wonder the level of intelligence and analysis of Nato. The least I could hope would be, that the decisions are based to more comprehensive material.

The views of UNDP, EUBAM and OSCE are different

A) UNDP

The 2006 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report (SALW Survey of Moldova, SEESAC/UNDP 2006-07-01, note: SALW = Small Arms and Light Weapons) states that there is currently a degree of transparency and good levels of co-operation with Pridnestrovie in the field of weapons control. It also says that the

Evidence for the illicit production and trafficking of weapons into and from Transdniestria has in the past been exaggerated. While trafficking of SALW from the territory controlled by the Transdniestrian authorities is likely to have occurred prior to 2001, there is no reliable evidence that this still occurs. The same holds true for the production of SALW, which is likely to have been carried out in the 1990s primarily to equip the Transdniestrian security forces.

B) OSCE

The OSCE and European Union officials state that there is no evidence that Transnistria has ever, at any time in the past, trafficked arms or nuclear material. The OSCE mission spokesman Claus Neukirch spoke about this situation: "There is often talk about sale of armaments from Transnistria, but there is no convincing evidence."

C) EUBAM

Since EUBAM began its work in 2005, it has been unable to document any of Moldova's charges against Pridnestrovie over alleged arms trafficking. Before the arrival of European Union monitors on Pridnestrovie's border, Moldovan government officials routinely claimed that Pridnestrovie (or Transnistria, as the state is referred to in Moldova) was "a black hole" in which numerous criminal acts took place. The work of the EUBAM mission since 2005 has been able to disprove these claims as mere anti-Pridnestrovie propaganda.

From EUBAM PressPack (http://www.eubam.org/files/300-399/323/press-pack-eng-jan08.pdf) following quote:

The Mission is aware that there have been rumours related to arms-trafficking from the Transdniestrian region of Moldova. Obviously we are not in a position to speak about the period of time before the opening of the Mission but we have made clear on several occasions that the EUBAM is not aware of any significant arms find since the operation of the Mission.

The bottom line

It seems that earlier maybe fabricated image still holds when opposite evidence meets the silence in western media. If one likes conspiracy theories s one could be, that the motive of disinformation is to cover other operations. Few years ago USA made pressure to Moldovan authorities to accept use of Moldova’s air space for arms trafficking from Bosnia to Iraq with V.Butt’s company (an arm dealer in trial now in Thailand). Moldova has also served as logistical base for many arm trafficking operations to Africa to different sides which maybe have not been noted while the view has been focused to Transdnistria.

More my views over Caucasus one may find form my Archives:Blog

Depleted Uranium from Nato bombs killing people in Balkans

I was just reading an article "Nato Still killing People in Kosovo" related to an issue of use depleted uranium during Nato bombings against Serbia. This topic was discussed years ago when e.g. I was working in Kosovo, however any proof then did not came to my hands. I also do not know if depleted uranium is used other conflicts in Balkans or elsewhere. Anyway if this is not a war crime so what is? Now we can have more information and I was so upset about that article published in Croatian "Javno" News portal that I quate it as such here without more comments:

NATO Still Killing People in Kosovo Back in 1999 NATO carried out a 78-day shelling of Serbia and Kosovo. They allegedly used depleted uranium which continues to kill people.Nine years after NATO’s bombing of Serbia, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is still taking lives in Kosovo, Serbia’s Pressonline reported. The NATO allegedly used shells with depleted uranium which are still today causing an increase in the number of cancer patients.Prior to 1999, the number of Serbs who suffered from malignant tumours was three times lesser, according to the statistics of Serb hospitals. In Kosovo’s Kosovska Mitrovica in 2005 there were 38 percent more cancer patients than in 2004.In those two years, a total of 3,500 cancer cases in Kosovo Albanians were diagnosed.Globally, six people out of a thousand suffer from malignant tumours on average. In the Kosovska Mitrovica hospital, there are 200 cancer patients to 1,000 people. NATO used weapons banned by international conventions? After 2000, groups of experts in atomic energy tested water, food, air, plants and animals to establish the damage caused by radiation from NATO shells. Beta and Gamma radiation was higher than the permissible level and radiation was discovered in the soil, water, plants and animals. After it gets into the soil, it takes some 250 years for depleted uranium to degrade. The conclusions of the studies were that the environment on 100 locations in Kosovo was not safe for animals or people, but no bans or moving of the population was carried out. European peace troops stationed in Kosovo knew there was great danger of radiation in these areas. Italian military experts concluded in 2005 that 34 soldiers had died from leukaemia and various malignant tumours. Since then 150 soldiers from Kosovo were sent home. In mid-2000 NATO published a map with 112 marked locations that had been shelled with depleted uranium. Over the 78 days of NATO bombing, a total of 31,000 shells with depleted uranium, weapons banned by international treaties, were dropped in Kosovo. Objavljeno: 17.11.2008. u 12:04h

Global Trends 2025 & Europe

I just took a glance at very interesting new report published on 21^st November 2008 by the United States National Intelligence Council - Washington's main intelligence body. The report, Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed, is published every four years to give U.S. leaders insight into looming problems and opportunities. This agency of agencies, formed in 1979, brings together analysis from each of America's multiple intelligence organizations to develop mid- to long-term strategic thinking for the country's security community.

Highlights

Here only few highlights of this 120 pages analysis:

• The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
• "Europe by 2025 will have made slow progress toward achieving the vision of current leaders and elites: a cohesive, integrated, and influential global actor," but not be a major military player. The European Union will be a "hobbled giant" crippled by internal bickering and a eurosceptic citizenry.
• "Europe will remain heavily dependent on Russia for energy in 2025, despite efforts to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy and lower greenhouse gas emissions."
• "Crime could be the gravest threat inside Europe as Eurasian transnational organisations - flush from involvement in energy and mineral concerns - become more powerful and broaden their scope."
• By 2025 "One or more governments in eastern or central Europe could fall prey to their domination," the authors believe about Eastern European organised crime.

(The full report can be downloaded from http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf)

My view

Intelligence Services do not have very high respect in my mind, but this report anyway has some noteworthy observations or views for further consideration.

The future of EU can very well be like forecasted in report – big economic and weak military player on globe suffering same time from gap between EU (eurosceptic) citizens and EU bureaucracy. I personally think that EU structure will develop in circles. First there is a core around old big players France-Germany, second circle will be the rest EU member states who have strong national interests or exceptions to core’s politics, third circle would be EU’s cooperation neighbours under Northern or Mediterranean dimension (including e.g. Turkey which EU probably can not absorb as member state) and forth circle will be the rest of he world with different cooperation schemes (Partnership agreement with Russia, transatlantic cooperation with USA etc).

The picture of EU’s energy dependency on Russia is surprisingly realistic having in mind EU’s ambitious “Supergrid” plan published mid-November 2008 and US’s and EU’s recent marketing for “southern energy corridor” - Nabucco-line.(More in my article “Powergame in EU-Russia summit” on 14.11.2008 in my Archives:Blog).

Organized crime indeed can be also big thread and my bet is, that Kosovo – if regarded as a state - has good change be first “captured” state; the local government already is leaded by drug lords and crime tribes in the centre of Balkan route.

More my views over Balkans and Caucasus one may find from my Archives:Blog

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UN deciding over plan for Kosovo – which plan to select?

Some 5.000 to 10.000 Kosovo Albanians protested on Wednesday in Pristina against the UN plan on the reconfiguration of Unmik. Last week, the United Nations put forward an amended 6-point plan for the deployment of the EU's EULEX mission. The United Nations’ six-point plan, negotiated between the UN Secretary General, Serbia and the European Union has been rejected by Kosovo leaders who argue it compromises Pristina’s sovereignty. On 18^th Nov.2008 Kosovo’s separatist government offered own 4-point plan, saying final "no" on 6-points.

Background

Straight after Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence EU launched its rule and law mission EULEX. The idea was to deploy a new civilian mission in Kosovo to replace the UN administration. However UNSC did not replace resolution 1244 - which was adopted in 1999 when the international administration and peacekeepers enter the province and confirms Serbia’s sovereignty over the province - so new mission’s legal base was in doubt.

Six-point-plan

To deploy EULEX the Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon of UN proposed on July 2008 technical negotiations between UN and Belgrade and Pristina authorities over six issues – police, customs, judicial system, traffic-infrastructure, borderline and Serbian cultural heritage.

Serbia outlined three conditions under which it would accept deployment - that

• Eulex secure UN security council approval,
• be neutral with respect to Kosovo's status and
• not implement the Ahtisaari Plan, which also lacks security council authorisation.

Few weeks ago agreement with Belgrade was reached. The amended six-point plan of the UN secretary-general, which Serbia declared it would support, also envisages an autonomous police force for Serb-majority areas, which would receive directives from the UN's mission in Kosovo (Unmik); with Eulex responsible for policing structures in majority-Albanian areas.

Four-point- plan

Analysts in Priština have noted, that accepting the 6-point-plan for would mean that the Kosovo officials would formally lose their sovereignty over North Kosovo, though this sovereignty does not exist essentially. This view Kosovo’s separatist government shares.

The rival plan unveiled by President Fatmir Sejdiu is argued by Pristina to be in accordance with Kosovo’s constitution and the UN plan for Kosovo’s independence drafted by ex-UN envoy for Kosovo’s final status, Martti Ahtisaari. “First – We back the very swift deployment of EULEX in Kosovo according to the mandate foreseen in the declaration of independence, Ahtisaari’s Plan and the Constitution of the Kosovo Republic.” “Now Kosovo has its own four point plan which is a blueprint for EULEX’s extension all over the territory of the Republic of Kosovo,” added Kosovo’s head of government. (BalkanInsight 18/11/2008)

The proposed plan includes four points (Source New Kosova Report 18/11/2008):

• the Government of the Republic of Kosovo support the quick deployment of EULEX in Kosovo in based on Independence Declaration, Ahtisaari document and Kosovo Constitution;
• institutions of the Republic of Kosovo reject entirely the Six-Point Plan;
• institutions of the Republic of Kosovo will closely cooperate with EULEX in the entire territory of Kosovo; and
• institutions of the Republic of Kosovo will cooperate as always with the United States of America, the European Union and NATO.

From my point of view word plan is exaggerated in this case, declaration or statement could describe beter the content.

USA decides …what?

Kosovo leaders continued 18^th Nov. 2008 talks with the US State Undersecretary for Eurasia Daniel Fried and EU officials on finding a solution for the deployment of EULEX on the whole territory of Kosovo. After talks Kosovo leaders informed that USA is backing their 4-point plan.

However on 20th Nov. 2008 US Ambassador to Serbia Cameron Munter says Kosovo officials have been informed of Washington’s support for the UN six-point plan, and Pristina is also urged to back the plan. The ambassador said Pristina was told that it should take into consideration that an agreement with Belgrade has been reached over the (6-point) plan and that Washington, which has been instrumental in supporting Kosovo’s efforts to gain independence from Serbia, deems the plan acceptable as well. (Source: BalkanInsight 20/11/2008)

Prima facie the 6-point and 4-point seems to be mutually exclusive, but hey are not when understanding 4-point to valid south of Ibar river and 6-point north of that.

To be continued

The session of the UN SC on Kosovo at which the Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon is expected to submit his report might be held on coming week. Until then, Belgrade has interrupted all further talks waiting for the Ban Ki-Moon’s report. If conditions set by Belgrade are precisely defined in that report (status neutrality of the EULEX deployed in Kosovo under the UN umbrella and not implementing Martti Ahtisaari’s plan), Serbia shall give the green light for deployment of the EULEX in the whole territory of Kosovo.

Accepting 6-point-plan does not change the actual situation on the ground. Southern part will continue its life under EU supervision implementing Ahtisaari plan, northern part will formally continue to be an UN protectorate de facto integrated to Serbia.

More over topic one may find from my Archives:Blog

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Croatia's and Serbia’s ‘Genocide’ Case To Proceed

Last century was marked deep ethnic tensions between Croats and Serbs. These tensions erupted most violent way during WWII and Yugoslavia’s breakup wars early 1990s. Now this brutal past is going on tables of international courtrooms while Croatian lawsuit against Serbia and Serbia’s countersuit will be heard in Haague.

ICJ

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled on Tuesday 18^th Nov. 2008 that it can hear a Croatian lawsuit filed against Serbia for genocide during the war in the early 1990s. The verdict of the 17-member trial chamber at the United Nations’ highest court was delivered by Court President Rosalyn Higgins at a public session. The trial chamber officials voted 10 to seven in favour of Croatia.

Earlier Belgrade claimed that the International Court of Justice has no authority in the case. However the court ruled that Belgrade recognised the jurisdiction of the ICJ during the 1990s by responding to suits filed against it by Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, and by filing charges against the NATO alliance for its bombing of Serbia in the spring of 1999.

Since an out-of-court settlement is highly unlikely, the next expected step is the confirmation of the suit being filed by Croatia, after which the Serbian legal team would be given at least a year to prepare both its defence and the countersuit announced by its legal representatives for the alleged genocide committed by Croatia against ethnic Serbs during the war. (Source BalkanInsght).

Croatia

Croatia filed the suit in 1999, claiming that Belgrade participated in the ethnic cleansing of Croats, through its command over the armed forces, information agencies and paramilitary units that perpetrated war crimes in Croatia. Serbs in Croatia set up their own entity in 1991 in response to Croatia’s declaration of independence from Yugoslavia, forcing thousands of Croats out of the area referred to as the Republic of Serb Krajina.

However, the breakaway state was defeated in 1995 in a Croatian military offensive known as “Operation Storm,” pushing thousands of ethnic Serbs out of Croatian and forcing them to seek refuge in Serbia.

Serbia

Serbia will file a lawsuit against Croatia for ethnic cleansing and war crimes committed during the so-called Op Storm, FM Vuk Jeremic said late on Tuesday 18^th. "Croatia did not appropriately respond to the hand of reconciliation which Serbia repeatedly offered, with a desire to leave the past behind and turn to our common future in Europe. A lawsuit will now be filed against Croatia in order for the truth finally to be found out," the minister told the state television RTS.

Jeremic said that Croatia had refused to face the fact that 250,000 ethnic Serbs had been ethnically cleansed from the territory of Croatia in 1995. "We will do all in our power to have our case appropriately presented to the court. We will review all developments in the 20th century, World War II and Independent State of Croatia. We will turn to history to find out the truth for the sake of our common future," the foreign minister stressed.

My point

It is quite clear that both sides have made brutalities, ethnic cleansing, war crimes etc to each other. On the one hand these events also include a part of myths or one-sided propaganda for political purposes, on the other hand the full picture or true story is still waiting for its paragon. While the process in ICJ will take at least some two years I am in doubts if this is the right way to complement the history. I think that a better way could be a “Truth Commission” like implemented in South Africa after apartheid. Due the lack of verdicts this kind of forum can go deeper to issues on the ground, it can also make base for mutual understanding better than some technical court procedure far away.

About Croatian/Serbian conflicts I have published few articles earlier, such as "Operation Storm" 5/8/2008 and 22/9/2008, "Nazi's Funeral shadows Croatia's past" on 1/8/2008, which can be found from my Archives:Blog.

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UN struggling with Kosovo's parallel structures

New Kosova Report - a non-profit information portal about Kosovo/a - got hold a secret facsimile from the former UNMIK chief Joachim Rücker sent to the United Nations' Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Marie Guéhenno on 15 October 2007. The letter describes how the Serb government was increasingly building parallel structures/services while the province was meant to be under authority of international administration according UN resolution 1244.

From my point of view Rücker’s letter highlights some aspects of recent Kosovo administration such as colonial attitude, ineffectiveness and contradictory actions of international community.

Partition with help of parallel structures

Rücker states that

accelerating partition prejudices ongoing political developments by creating a fait accompli where the K-Serbian-inhabited areas of Kosovo are both separated from the rest of Kosovo and made increasingly reliant on Belgrade. At the current pace, areas inhabited by K-Serbs will soon be capable of consuming basic utilities provided directly from Serbia without any communication with the rest of Kosovo or any respect for Kosovo's laws and regulations.

The letter is followed by a catalogue of buildings housing security, transportation, public administration, justice, healthcare, telecommunication, energy and financial institutions which are counterparts to the Serbia ones.

Rücker complains, that UNMIK's ability to respond to this situation is limited due in large part to our reliance on the willingness of KFOR participating states to utilise force to achieve objectives beyond providing a Safe and secure environment. Rücker original letter with appendix (catalogue) can be found from here.

Colonial thinking

Reading Rücker’s complains one could think that he is envious of Serbia that it is making (better) his job by offering services to local population. His attitude is represents normal colonial top-to-bottom thinking where important is who has formal power and credit about actions.

UNMIK has had full executive power some nine years in Kosovo with huge financial resources (biggest per capita of all missions in the world) and support of majority of local population. In spite of this it has end up in a fiasco regarding its human rights and capacity building efforts more or less both majority and minority ethnic groups.

Administration for the people

While Rücker conception represents centralism and formality where important is who provides services – and gets credit of that – the total opposite way of thinking could be to take up a position of local stakeholders – view of a beneficiary of public services.

Besides political game the bottom-to-top reasons for parallel structures could be, that

• there is not an alternative public services available,
• the services provided by by parallel structures are better than official ones,
• there is no access to official public services, or
• local people are afraid to go to use services they perceive hostile or are situated in hostile environment

Contradictory actions

One observation about contradictory actions I can make from my personal experiences. In Rücker’s catalogue was many buildings with parallel institutions which were not created only with help of aid from Serbia. Many schools, health centres, education, sport and culture facilities as well infrastructure projects got financing from USAID, EU, OSCE, DFID and even UN when they were working exactly same way than during Rücker’s time.

On the other hand international administration was building facilities and on the other hand they complain the use of them. The good thing with all this mess is that KFOR did not started military operations to destroy these public services even they are managed by “wrong” administrators.

More my views over Balkans and Caucasus one may find from my Archives:Blog

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