My articles June 1st to 15th 2008

Kosovo quasi-independence and it´s economical base
Published June 15, 2008 BalkanBlog 0 Comments Edit
Tags: crisis management, economy, EULEX, EUSR, Kosovo, self-governance, Serbia, UN, UNMIK

Today Kosovo had proclamation of it´s constitution. The mainstream media has highlighted conflicts of administration between UN and Kosovo institutions as well between UN and EU. The fact is anyway that the highest authority is the UN resolution 1244, which says that Kosovo is part of Serbia
(ex-Yugoslavia). Indepence declarations, local constitutions, Ahtisaari plan and EULEX are only at secondary level.

More important factor by my opinion for future of Kosovo is the economical base of this province. Official statistics from year 2006 shows that export from Kosovo amounted to 71.3 millon Euro while import increased to 1,241.7 million Euro (u by 802 million Euro compared with 2005). So the increase of import was more that the whole export.

From where is money coming to this consumption. The estimate is that when export brings mentioned 71 million Euro the organised crime (mainly drug trafficing) brings 1 bilion Euro, diaspora gives 500 million Euro and international community 200 million Euro.

If border control will bemore effective and when donations rom diaspora and international community are decreasing (like they have during last years) the basic question is how to reinforce the economical base of province.

Public debatte between UN and local politicians or between UN and EULEX is covering mentioned economical fact under. In my opinion Kosovo needs more economical development mission than rule and law mission. The later can be implemented trough UNMIK and Interpol. The future self-governance in Kosovo should have healthy economical base.
Full chaos with Kosovo administration
Published June 13, 2008 BalkanBlog 0 Comments Edit
Tags: crisis management, EULEX, Kfor, Kosovo, Nato, Serbia, UN UNMIK, western Balkans

Year 2008 has showed the chaotic stage of international Kosovo administration. Local administration has been in same situation already earlier due parallel institutions, corruption, ethnic tensions, tribe dynasties etc.

When Albanian majority declared Independence Feb. 2008 the idea was to transfer international administration from UN to EU. However the only internationally accepted resolution 1244 - which says that Kosovo is part of Serbia - stayed valid. So that about independence which in mistake was was accepted through some 40 countries.

The unclear situation between UN and EU has now came conflict also between Nato and EU in relation cooperation between Kfor troops and EULEX-mission. Already earlier Kosovo status as special case has served as example to many other ethnic conflict around the world.

Isn´t it now finally time to confess the made mistakes and start new chapter through local stakeholders in stead of quackery by outsiders. I think that the best international crisis management would be to create opportunities for local agreement by means of stick and carrots. This could make it possible to transfer focus from legal nitpicking to long lasting development of economy and democratic process.

Co-rule as new option to open Kosovo deadlock
Published June 10, 2008 BalkanBlog 0 Comments Edit
Tags: Kosovo, Serbia, conflicts, politics, UN, UNMIK, EULEX, EU, crisis management, South Eastern Europe, EUSR, western Balkans

Albanian dominated Kosovo government is planning to start implement their quasi-independence 15th June, when UN should transfer administration to EULEX mission. Without new UN SG decision this is not realistic option so the the meaning of whole international administration, UN legacy and EU civil crisis management is in question.

One reasent option came public last week: UN may deside co-rule Kosovo with Serbia. This option is possible according resolution 1244. Practically it would mean, that Serbia would run vital services in Kosovo’s Serb populated areas. The UNMIK-Serbia partnership could be areas like bordercontrol Serbia-Kosovo boundary, customs, police, transport and telecom, justice and protection of Serbian cultral heritage. Already today e.g. education and health care north of Ibar river are integrated to Serbia.

Under UN/UNMIK EU could implement in some degree their EULEX so this option can be a realistic solution to this frozen conflict.

This kind of functional division would de facto mean partition but so what if this is pragmatical, long lasting and peaceful solution acceptable to local stakeholders.

Elections in FRYMacedonia
Published June 3, 2008 BalkanBlog 0 Comments Edit
Tags: crisis management, EU, EU enlargement, Kosovo, Macedonia, politics, South Eastern Europe

Elections in FRYMacedonia showed from my point of view two factors typical in Balkans: 1st how fragile is peace orchesterated by outsiders and 2nd what kind of “powderkek” Balkan area is. Outsiders have coerced peace also in Bosnia and Kosovo which both have continuening problems. However divorce between Serbia and Montenegro was peaceful, because both states acted according their agreement and honored the result of referendum. This kind of approach - outsiders out, locals in - could bring more peace also to other frozen conflicts.