February 28, 2025
The first phase of the three-phase hostage and ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas ends on Saturday, March 1, 2025. Under the agreement, 602 terrorist prisoners will then be released in exchange for the bodies of four slain Israeli hostages. Of the prisoners to be released, 50 are serving life sentences, many of whom were responsible for orchestrating the horrific suicide bombings of the mid-1990s.
Saturday’s exchange of hostages for terrorists marks the end of the first phase of the agreement. There are no signs from either side of the warring parties or the various mediators that Israel and Hamas are close to reaching an agreement on implementing the second phase of the hostage and ceasefire agreement.
Saturday, March 1, 2025~~?
US Ambassador Steve Witkoff has been trying to broker an extension of the first phase of the ceasefire. Such an extension would specifically include the release of hostages deemed to be in need of immediate medical attention. The remaining hostages are all men under 50, and each would require Israel to pay higher “ransoms” than convicted terrorists to be released. It is unlikely that an extension of the first phase would cover all living hostages, as Hamas can be expected to want to hold some to achieve its larger political goals in the war.
The hardening of attitudes in Israel is also illustrated by the announcement on Thursday, February 27, 2025, by Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen that Israel will not withdraw from the so-called Philadelphia Corridor in Gaza as required by the ceasefire agreement. He stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw until three key goals were achieved: the full return of prisoners, the removal of Hamas from power, and the complete disarmament of Gaza. Israeli forces also consider their presence in the area essential to prevent weapons smuggling. Israel was expected to begin withdrawing from the Philadelphia Corridor on Saturday, the last day of the first phase of the ceasefire, and to complete the withdrawal within eight days.
Israeli politicians outside the government have presented their own “after-the-day” plans for Gaza. Left-wing leader Yair Golan called for moderate Palestinian forces to control Gaza while preserving the IDF’s freedom of action.
Yair Lapid, the leader of the center-right opposition, presented a plan that called for Egypt to take responsibility for Gaza for 15 years, during which the international community would wipe out Egypt’s $155 billion foreign debt. Lapid explained that Israel cannot accept Hamas remaining in power, the Palestinian Authority (PA) is unable to govern Gaza, the Israeli occupation is undesirable, and the continued chaos poses a serious security threat to Israel. At the same time, Egypt’s economy is on the verge of collapse and threatens the stability of Egypt and the entire Middle East. Lapid said that over the course of 15 years, Gaza would be rebuilt and the conditions for self-rule would be created.
Lapid proposed that the current ceasefire be ended until all hostages are released, with Egypt assuming control of Gaza through a UN Security Council resolution, defined as “custodianship,” with the goal of transferring the Gaza Strip to the PA government after a process of reform and deradicalization, with measurable criteria. At the same time, a reconstruction process would begin under Egyptian supervision, with Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accords signatories participating in working groups, and the United States investing in Gaza. He also called on Egypt to allow any Gazan who wants to leave and has somewhere to go to do so in a regulated manner.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is currently (27/02/2025) in Riyadh to discuss an Arab plan for Gaza. Arab states are expected to discuss a post-war reconstruction plan for Gaza, possibly to counter US President Donald Trump’s proposal to redevelop the Strip under US control. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are reviewing the Arab plan in Riyadh before it is presented at a planned Arab summit in Cairo on March 4. The plan for Gaza could include up to $20 billion for reconstruction in the territory. The proposal includes the formation of a Palestinian national committee to govern Gaza without Hamas involvement and international participation in reconstruction without transferring Palestinians abroad. Egypt’s initial proposal is reported to have been a five-year plan for Gaza reconstruction, during which Gazans would be resettled in safe zones inside Gaza.
The EU, a major donor to the Palestinians, presented its position to the Israeli authorities in talks in Brussels on 24 February as part of the EU-Israel Association Council, the first such meeting since 2022. The EU supports the return of Gazans to their homes in Gaza and has pledged to contribute to their reconstruction.
According to Maher al-Namoura, a Fatah spokesman, the Palestinian Authority is capable of governing and rebuilding Gaza. He made his remarks in a recent discussion on the social media of Saudi Arabia’s interactive news channel Al Hadath. This reflects the PA’s policy since 2007 – when Hamas illegally pushed it out of Gaza in 2007 – that it should govern Gaza. Fatah is the largest faction in the PA.
My assessment
My assessment of the implementation of the second phase of the Hamas-Israel agreement, at least in the form previously outlined, is even more pessimistic than before. The reason is the numerous violations of the first agreement and the treatment of the hostages, which shocked the Israelis in particular. Tensions are also increasing due to the bus bombing in the Tel Aviv area a week ago, which, if successful (only two buses exploded at the depot), would have been very devastating. The attack was carried out by West Bank terrorists but Hamas took responsibility for them.
The first shock was the starving appearance of the three released hostages, the second was the inferior carnivalization of the release event by Hamas, the third was the return of the mother, baby and child under 5 years old of the Bibas family in coffins, the fourth was that one body was a completely unknown Arab woman (later corrected to the right person) and the fifth was when it was discovered that a 9-month-old baby and a 4-year-old had been slaughtered by Hamas already in November 2023 (Hamashan claimed that the family died in Israeli airstrikes, so no signs were found in the autopsies).
If no agreement is reached to extend the first phase, Israel is preparing to resume intense fighting with US support. It is hoped that the credibility of this threat will persuade Hamas to extend the agreement.
In the second phase of the ceasefire, the remaining 59 hostages would be released, Israel would withdraw completely from Gaza, and a permanent ceasefire would be established. Of the hostages, 24-27 are believed to still be alive. The current Israeli government does not want to withdraw from Gaza until all hostages are returned, and as long as Hamas poses a military threat to the country,
A renewed outbreak of fighting, should the ceasefire collapse, will occur in a vastly different global strategic environment than the one that prevailed when the war broke out in October 2023. The Iranian “ring of fire” that surrounded Israel in 2023 has broken in Lebanon and Syria (but not in Yemen), while the US administration today no longer places limits on Israeli firepower.
In any case, I assume that in the coming weeks there will be intensive negotiations on extending the first phase of the agreement. During this time, Israel will probably conclude the purge of Hamas terrorist cells in the West Bank, and the moderate Arab countries will present their own post-war plan for Gaza.
Sources include Jerusalem Post, BICOM , TheNewArab
Article first published (in Finnish) in Ariel-Israelista suomeksi online publication
